date of January 2021 was pencilled in. That may slip again, but the delay will not
diminish the sour mood surrounding the event.
The essence of the NPT is that the nuclear have-nots refrain from developing nukes in
exchange for the nuclear powers working towards eliminating theirs. The previous
RevCon, in 2015, was a flop, ending without a consensus statement. Since then, divisions
have only deepened, as nuclear deals have either collapsed (the Intermediate-Range
Nuclear Forces treaty between America and Russia) or have come close to doing so (the
nuclear deal with Iran, which still holds despite America's withdrawal). The new TPNW
is a response from some of the nuclear have-nots to the sense that the nuclear powers
are intent on building up their arsenals rather than drawing them down: in short, that
the NPT is failing.
The looming crunch concerns the New START treaty between America and Russia. The
treaty, which limits each country’s strategic nuclear arsenals and enables intrusive
inspections, will expire on February 5th 2021 unless both agree to extend it for up to
five years. If it lapses, the two superpowers, which together have about 90% of the
world’s nukes, will be without a nuclear treaty for the first time in nearly half a century.
And if that means a new nuclear arms race, America’s chief negotiator, Marshall
Billingslea, said in May: “We know how to win these races, and we know how to spend
the adversary into oblivion.”
The Trump administration wanted to use the deadline to press China (which has a
relatively small nuclear arsenal but is suspected of planning to expand it rapidly) into a
tripartite nuclear arms-control deal. The Chinese show no interest in submitting to
restrictions. Americans at talks on New START in June pointedly photographed Chinese
flags in front of the empty chairs of the Chinese delegates who declined the invitation to
attend. Although, before the American election, Mr Billingslea said a deal with Russia
was “very, very close”, time is running short to keep New START alive.
And the nuclear crisis of 2021? The worrying thing is that the list of potential causes is
long. It includes accidents; cyber-attacks on nuclear facilities; reckless sabre-rattling;
new tests by North Korea; an escalation of border hostilities between India and China;
an escalation of tensions over Kashmir between India and Pakistan; further moves by
Iran towards developing a weapon; threats by other countries to join the nuclear club;
and efforts by rogue groups to obtain a “dirty bomb”. In 2020 the world was too
complacent about the risks of a pandemic. In 2021 it should not make the same mistake
over nukes.
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