will still prefer independent travel, despite efforts to make public transport safer by
promoting the wearing of masks.
In Berlin passengers on public transport who fail to wear masks are warned of a €50
($60) fine with the slogan “Protect others. Yourself. And your wallet.” Our data suggest
that many people will avoid such fines by driving instead. Traffic congestion in Berlin
was 8% above pre-pandemic levels between August and October. The pandemic has
driven up vehicle registrations in New York City. In every city we analysed, car use grew
more quickly than public transport and walking, after lockdowns eased in mid-2020.
Congestion has followed this trajectory in most places, though a drop in tourist numbers
has freed space on the roads.
In recent years urbanites in developed countries have been shifting away from driving
and car use, in favour of public transport, ride-hailing, car clubs and other alternatives.
Tightening regulation, in the form of congestion charges and emissions rules, also made
car ownership less attractive. Julia Poliscanova from Transport & Environment, a think-
tank, says the future of city centres is, if not car-free, then at least electric. In 2021 the
EU is due to review its rules on emission standards that will help reduce the numbers of
dirty vehicles on the road. The recent uptick in car usage may prompt cities to
accelerate their plans to ban non-electric vehicles from their streets.
Several cities, including Athens, Budapest, London, Milan, New York and Paris, have
pedestrianised streets to aid social distancing and introduced new bike lanes. Many
plan to make these changes permanent. As the combination of more cars and closed-off
roads compounds congestion, that will help two other competitors in the race for space
on the streets: bicycles and e-scooters.
During the lockdowns in mid-2020 bicycles experienced a surge in popularity. New
bikes were in short supply, and city residents who had previously considered bike-
sharing schemes to be transport for tourists changed their minds. With few visitors
around, London’s bike-sharing scheme saw a threefold increase in new users between
March and July. The city’s cycling tsar, Will Norman, says London has added 40 miles of
temporary bike lanes. Nationally, the government has pledged £2bn ($3.2bn) towards
new cycling and walking infrastructure. During the summer, cycle traffic recovered to
pre-pandemic levels on many commuter routes into central London, even as offices
remain largely empty. In 2021 many more commuters will opt for pedal power.
The latest contender for street supremacy is the e-scooter, which can be rented by the
minute using a smartphone app. Startups have launched scooter services in cities
around the world, and the pandemic has strengthened the case for their adoption. In
Berlin, which has thousands of e-scooters, usage rose when lockdown eased in May
2020.
One argument against e-scooters is that they are used for short trips and may
discourage walking and cycling, but do not replace car journeys. But an analysis by inrix,
a research outfit, in 2018 found that one-fifth of car journeys in large American and
British cities were of less than a mile. Half of urban car trips in America, and two-thirds
in Britain, were shorter than three miles. Some critics say e-scooters are dangerous. But
data from Lime, a rental firm, indicates that one-third of all accidents occur within the