Sceptical countries, such as the Netherlands, will keep a close eye on what governments
are doing with the money; Spanish and Italian politicians will not appreciate other EU
countries butting into their financial affairs. They will have to get used to it, though.
Such debates are normally the purview of purely national politics. In 2021 they will
start to take place on a European level.
Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, will have little incentive to go easy on his
southern neighbours. The Netherlands will go to the polls in the spring—the first of two
important European elections in 2021—and Mr Rutte will pick a fight with southern
governments so as not to lose voters to his Eurosceptic right. Yet the liberal-
conservative Dutch prime minister will have to walk a tightrope: Europhilic parties lurk
to his left. Mr Rutte has found a cunning way to balance these two camps. Expect him to
join liberal rivals in staunch criticism of Poland and Hungary for backsliding on
democratic norms. For the Dutch, a press-nobbling Hungarian is just as bad as a
profligate Italian.
Doubts over the rule of law will dog the union in 2021. This will get worse as countries
such as Bulgaria, Cyprus and Malta—where allegations of corruption, passport-hawking
and press suppression are rife—join Poland and Hungary on the EU’s naughty step. The
single market rests upon the assumption that each country has incorruptible politicians,
a free press and a fair legal system, which is not something that can be guaranteed.
Patience will be in short supply.
So will action. Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, has run rings round his liberal
opponents for more than a decade, protected in part by his membership of the
European People’s Party, the influential centre-right group of European politicians.
Invertebrate politicians from the centre-right have done little to restrain him. Mr
Orban’s run of victories will not be brought to a halt, even as his fellow leaders grumble.
Depressingly, many leaders ignore the topic because they believe the EU has bigger
problems. When it comes to foreign policy, they are right. A ring of instability surrounds
the bloc, from north Africa to Russia. Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan will
menace the union’s frontiers, while the EU flails in its response. Coming up with a
coherent foreign policy towards the EU’s neighbours will be a nightmare. Interests
diverge too sharply over countries such as Russia and Turkey, which manage to be
useful friends for some member states and existential threats to others.
The EU will be more united on matters farther afield. It is easier, but still not easy, to
devise a common policy towards China than it is on Russia. The arrival of Donald Trump
in the White House was a timely reminder that American and European interests do not
always align. European powers (egged on in particular by Emmanuel Macron, the
French president) have learnt, belatedly, that sometimes the union must go it alone.
European sovereignty—the ability not to be bossed around by a hegemon—will be the
watchword. President Joe Biden will do little to stop this inexorable shift. Ursula von der
Leyen, the newish president of the European Commission, has said she will run a
“geopolitical commission”. It is in the EU’s relations with other great powers that this
idea will be forged. The EU will remain wary of over-reliance on America. It is
determined not to be sucked into any great-power struggle between China and America.
Although the EU has long held its own as an economic power, using trade as a stick,