serious attention will turn to its (lack of) military capability in 2021. After all, Britain,
the main—but by no means the only—obstacle to such an approach, is gone.
In 2021 Brexit begins in earnest. After four years of argument, its effects will start to be
felt. Business people have long been aware that their lives will change, but British
citizens will receive a ruder awakening. Attention will be grabbed by seemingly trivial
consequences. Rows over such issues as pet passports—and the potential spectacle of
French border guards impounding British dogs—rather than more substantial
economic issues will play an improbably large role in the debate. Brexiteers have long
made the mistake of assuming that the EU is puny. Remainers, meanwhile, assume that
it is kind. Both are in for a shock.
Other departures will leave more of a hole. Angela Merkel will exit the European stage
when she leaves office after the German election in the autumn. Mrs Merkel has been
the Copernican constant of the EU system: politics moved around her. Although
Germany did not always get what it wanted, it was nearly always able to stop what it
opposed. Her departure will leave a vacuum. Who will fill it? For Europe, that will be the
most consequential outcome of 2021.
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