That sense will only be heightened by the unpredictability of the election. Mrs Merkel’s
conservative Christian Democratic Union (along with its Bavarian sister party, the
Christian Social Union) is still likely to lead the next government, as it has for all but
seven of the 30 years since reunification. But the CDU/CSU’s “Merkel bonus”, boosted by
steady handling of the covid-19 crisis, will fade in 2021 as German voters adjust to the
party’s new leadership.
Mrs Merkel’s hopes of engineering her own succession collapsed when Annegret
Kramp-Karrenbauer, her protégée, flamed out in early 2020. Each of the three men now
vying to replace her as party leader will expect victory to translate into a CDU/CSU
nomination for the chancellorship (the two parties propose a joint candidate). Armin
Laschet, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s largest state, offers
centrism in the Merkel mould. Friedrich Merz, a pro-business Atlanticist, promises a
flintier conservatism. Norbert Röttgen, the third contender, is a long shot. The dark
horse is the CSU’s charismatic leader (and Bavaria’s premier), Markus Söder, whose
high approval ratings might endear him to the CDU should its own new leader fail to
inspire voters.
After the election a fragmented parliament will complicate the formation of a coalition.
Eight unhappy years as understudy to Mrs Merkel mean the Social Democrats (SPD)
may relish a spell in opposition, despite the ambition of Olaf Scholz, Germany’s finance
minister and the SPD’s candidate for chancellor. But the Greens, already in governing
coalitions in more than half of Germany’s 16 states, are gearing up for national office.
Their co-leaders—Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, who must decide which of
them will lead the election campaign—have shifted the party to the centre. A CDU/CSU-
Green (“black-green”) coalition, the likeliest outcome, might combine Green
compromises on defence and foreign policy with conservative assent to a big
programme of climate-friendly public investment. Less probable coalitions include a
Green- or SPD-led “progressive” government with the ex-communist Die Linke.
Mrs Merkel’s successor will be tempted to imitate her measured approach. But new
tests await. Perhaps the chancellor’s greatest fault was failing to prepare Germany for
long-term challenges, from insecurity in Europe’s neighbourhood and beyond to the
disruptions facing its crucial car industry. The crises she managed battered Europe but
rarely interrupted stability at home. Her successor may not be so lucky.
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