to contain climate change, Russian aggression and Iran’s nuclear programme (see
Middle East section). But he will maintain the Trump administration’s adversarial
posture towards China, and some of its tariffs. He will slow, but not reverse, America’s
disengagement from Afghanistan. And in America’s accelerating shift in focus from west
to east—which Mr Biden will not interrupt—those same old allies may detect more than
a hint of Mr Trump’s transactional style.
Despite the constraints on his power, 2021 could turn out well for Mr Biden. This will
rest above all on his administration’s ability to make a covid-19 vaccine quickly and
widely available. If that goes smoothly, the economy will rapidly make up its lost ground
and Mr Biden’s popularity will surge. If it does not, the hope stirred by the end of Mr
Trump’s misrule will soon dissipate—to the former president’s advantage.
The degree to which Mr Trump retreats from public life is another great question for
the year ahead. Members of the Republican establishment fear that, by looming over
their defeated party on Twitter and television, Mr Trump will be a barrier to reforming
it. Their fears will probably be realised.
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