Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, then got to decide on redistricting the following year. The
result: such states have become some of the most grossly gerrymandered. In Wisconsin,
for example, even if Democrats won 54% of the votes cast in legislative elections,
Republicans could still expect to enjoy a nine-seat majority in the state assembly.
This is not just unfair. It also encourages extremism. In gerrymandered seats the
incumbent knows that the risk of losing in the general election is slight. The greater
threat is from in-party primary challengers who typically appeal to the political
extremes (mostly it is ardent party activists who turn out for primaries). Less
gerrymandering this time, therefore, could help encourage moderates in both parties.
There had been hopes that in 2021 matters would swing back a bit. Democrats had
expected to win over more state houses in 2020, for example, but their efforts badly
flopped. In some places where Republicans still control the legislature, such as
Wisconsin, Democrats now occupy the governor’s mansion, and can (usually) veto
legislators’ redistricting plans if they are egregious. A clash there is likely as legislators
and the governor squabble before the courts intervene. That will look ugly but could
result in less lopsided districts.
Just as importantly, several states have cleaned up the process of drawing boundaries
by pushing politicians aside. In 2018 voters in Michigan, for example, overwhelmingly
backed a plan for an independent commission, for both congressional and state district
maps. Arizona, California and Colorado have all introduced independent commissions.
Iowa already has non-partisan staff drawing its maps. In Pennsylvania courts have
redrawn maps that were deemed too partisan, which with luck will ensure that future
efforts are more restrained. Two years ago Missouri opted to reform its system, but
voters undid that change in November. Even so, at least in the Midwest, there will be
less chance for skulduggery.
Where will gerrymandering still happen? Keep an eye on two trends, suggests Michael
Li, an expert in the subject at the Brennan Centre for Justice, a New York think-tank that
focuses on law and policy. First, watch states where one party won the “trifecta”: control
of the assembly, the state senate and the governor’s mansion. Republicans already have
several and added two more, in New Hampshire and Montana, in November. And,
second, see where sizeable population shifts are recorded, meaning that big changes to
voting districts are due.
Democratic-run Illinois remains badly gerrymandered. More serious worries arise in
fast-growing southern states, where Republicans often dominate all wings of
government. Race is usually an underlying issue—maps are redrawn to weaken the
influence of African-American and other non-white voters (who are more reliably
Democratic). Conditions are ripe for bad behaviour in Florida, Georgia and Texas—and
in North Carolina, where the governor cannot veto redistricting plans.
It is unlikely that a divided Congress would agree on federal plans to improve
redistricting for all, but it could push for national standards both for congressional
districts and for state legislative ones. Three representatives from California proposed
such a bill in 2019. Congress has acted before. In 1842 it ordered that a district could