America already has the highest per-person rate of gun ownership in the world. It has
more guns than people and more mass shootings than any other rich country. But if
2020 was the year of the gun, 2021 will be the year that gun control gets more attention.
There are four places to watch.
First is the White House. As president, Donald Trump played to his pro-gun supporters
and unwound existing restrictions where he could. Joe Biden, by contrast, will set his
sights on gun control. As a senator in the 1990s, Mr Biden helped enact the current
federal background-check system, and the assault-weapons ban, which expired in 2004.
As president, he has promised to pursue another such ban, although it would be
politically contentious. He is more likely to expand universal background-checks by
closing loopholes for gun sales and transfers.
Second, pay attention to the Supreme Court. The newest justice, Amy Coney Barrett,
could second-guess many long-standing gun-control laws, predicts Adam Winkler,
author of “Gun Fight” and a professor at UCLA Law School. For example, she may call
into question state laws that ban felons from owning firearms and that remove guns
from people who are mentally ill. This is bad news for supporters of gun control.
Historically the Supreme Court has been loth to take up new Second Amendment
cases—in the spring of 2020 alone it turned down ten—but this will change with Ms
Barrett on the bench.
Third, watch the states. Blue states, like California, will push for more restrictive laws,
while red states will try to expand people’s ability to carry guns without a permit.
Americans’ views on guns have shifted after so many mass shootings, and this is evident
in the unprecedented attention politicians at the state and federal level are giving gun
control, says Joseph Sakran, a surgeon and activist.
Fourth, keep an eye on on the National Rifle Association (NRA). A powerful force in
American politics, the non-profit group has attacked gun-control efforts in the past but
will be under attack itself in 2021. New York’s attorney-general has sued the
organisation and is trying to shut it down, and the Internal Revenue Service is
reportedly investigating the NRA’s president for possible tax fraud. This will
reverberate in the fight over gun-control policy. No longer does a weaker NRA seem like
a long shot.
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