Mexicans are getting poorer, too. The economy is in its worst slump for 80 years. It
probably shrank by at least 10% in 2020; more than 1.1m people lost their jobs
between March and June. AMLO, a fiscal conservative, has continued to tout austerity,
ignoring advice that he should ride out the covid-19 crisis with spending. Decisions
taken before the pandemic hit, such as cancelling a new airport, worth $13bn and
already half-built, have led to less investment and more capital flight.
Security is also worsening. In the first six months of 2020 Mexico registered a record
17,349 murders, a 1.7% increase on the same period in 2019—in other locked-down
countries, crime fell. In June 2020 Mexicans were rattled by a drug gang’s assassination
attempt against Mexico City’s police chief. It was unusually shocking both for being so
brazen and for taking place in a posh area of the capital.
However, AMLO may not pay at the polls for his blunders. His approval rating dropped
from 80% at the start of 2020 to around 60% by mid-year, and support for Morena has
fallen, too. In May only 19% of people said they would definitely vote for the party in
2 021, less than half the proportion in December 2018.
Yet AMLO’s appeal, like that of other populists globally, rests more on personality and
patrimony than prowess. Many Mexicans see him as one of them: he stops to eat tacos at
roadside stalls and mingles with workers. Others see him as their saviour. Many credit
him with projects such as the expansion of pensions and training programmes for youth.
AMLO’s clean reputation helps. Even his detractors admit that he is not personally
corrupt, a rare quality among the country’s leaders. That has been conveniently
highlighted by a huge continuing corruption scandal in which a former head of the state
oil company has made serious accusations against high-level Mexican officials, including
three former presidents.
The opposition parties could club together to wound Morena. So AMLO may emerge
with less of a mandate and a diminished ability to proceed with his grandiose plan to
purge corruption, erase wealth inequality and promote national self-sufficiency—
dubbed ”a fourth transformation” of Mexico.
One outcome in 2021 is clear: as in many countries around the world, not least Mexico’s
neighbour to the north, elections have little power to heal divisions amplified by a
polarising head of state.
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