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Between the virus and the vote

Michael Reid: Bello columnist; senior editor, Latin America and Spain, The Economist

A battle to revive economies and defend democracy

FOR LATIN AMERICA’S leaders 2021 will be about steering economic recovery while
fending off a debt crisis and trying to persuade their citizens that democracy can still
deliver results. What are the prospects around the region?

With populations ravaged by covid-19 despite long lockdowns, many countries may
have some degree of “herd immunity”. But the socio-economic consequences of the
pandemic will linger: after economies contracted by 8% or so in 2020, Latin America
will have some 40m “new poor”, taking those living in poverty to at least one in three of
the population. Frustrations will show up in street protests—watch Argentina and
Colombia in particular—and the threat of populist victories in elections. Armies may be
called upon to play a more prominent role in enforcing order and propping up
governments, though many will be reluctant. Even so, democracy, predominant in the
region since the 1980s, could succumb in some places. Look out for El Salvador’s
authoritarian president, Nayib Bukele, in that regard.