between the two powers reconfigures global supply chains, South-East Asians still
intend to profit from that.
Even so, it is a gamble, and other risks loom. Not the least of them is maintaining ASEAN
solidarity—China has already tried to drive a wedge into the organisation by turning
Cambodia and Laos, for now, into client states. Mr Xi’s increasing claims to speak for all
ethnic Chinese overseas, including 30m South-East Asians of Chinese ancestry, raise the
risk of nativist demagogues using anti-China feelings to whip up ethnic hatred.
Perhaps the most nail-biting risk of all is of some unintended clash between China and
America over the South China Sea. In the event of military conflict, the hedge, the
balance and the bandwagon will not get anyone very far at all.
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