20 BARRON’S December
ByLAUREN R. RUBLIN
12 investors,
economists,
and academics
size up the
challenges and
opportunities
ahead.
Envisioning
Po s t- C ov i d
Wo r l d
the
The postpandemic world is at once so nearand un-
bearably far away. Will it resemble the world we knew, or
look strikingly different? Which issues and attitudes will
animate us and inform our choices in the next year and
beyond? What, if anything, will we have learned from
thisannus horribilisabout the behavior of people, govern-
ments, and markets?
With the seemingly imminent rollout of Covid-
vaccines, and the promise they hold for a return to “nor-
malcy,” it’s time to ask those questions—and start gather-
ing answers. And that’s just whatBarron’sdid in a series
of recent interviews with a dozen investors, economists,
and academics.
You might recognize some—the historian Niall Fergu-
son, Wall Street legend Howard Marks, and behavioral
economist Richard Thaler, for instance—while others,
such as Karen Karniol-Tambour, a top executive at
Bridgewater Associates, and Jens Nordvig, proprietor of
Exante Data, an economic and financial forecasting firm,
may be less familiar, for now. You might agree with some,
and vehemently disagree with others, but we think you’ll
find all of their comments worth reading.
These edited interviews cover a wide range of subjects,
from markets and geopolitics to Bitcoin and sports. They
also highlight some shared concerns among our subjects,
chiefly regarding runaway debt, China’s ascendance, the
impact of climate change, and government’s unprepared-
ness to deal with future crises. One theme looms largest,
however, for reasons beyond dispute: No matter its poten-
tial perils, the post-Covid world can’t come soon enough.
HOWARD MARKS
Co-Chairman, Oaktree Capital Management
Los Angeles
Barron’s: What’s the biggest question we’ll face when
the Covid-19 pandemic winds down?
Howard Marks:The rate at which we’ll return—and the
extent to which we’ll return—to our prior behavior. My
guess is we’ll go a good bit of the way back to what used
to be business, or life, as usual. For the most part, life
won’t be fundamentally changed. The things that you or
I now would consider out of the question, like going to
r7, 2020 BARRON’S 21
Inside
Karen Karniol-Tambour
P. 22
Niall Ferguson
P. 24
Jens Nordvig
P. 24
Louis-Vincent Gave
P. 26
Afsaneh Mashayekhi
Beschloss
P. 27
Mark Schneider
P. 27
Adam Tooze
P. 28
Marc Lasry
P. 29
Stephanie Kelton
P. 31
Jim Rogers
P. 32
Richard Thaler
P. 32
Photograph by
XAVIER GUERRA
“If people are risk-
tolerant and afraid
of being out of the
market, they buy
aggressively, in which
caseyoucan’tfindany
bargains. That’s where
wearenow.That’swhat
the Fed engineered by
putting rates at zero.”
Howard Marks