Barron's - USA (2020-12-07)

M38 BARRON’S December 7, 2020

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 0.25 0.25 2.25

PrimeRate(base) 3.25 3.25 4.75

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 0.09 0.09 1.55

Avg weekly auction-c 0.08 0.09 1.55

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.086 0.086 1.592

13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.085 0.085 1.560

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.091 0.091 1.604

26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.090 0.090 1.565
Avg weekly auction-c 0.09 0.08 1.58

BrokerCallRate 2.00 2.00 3.50

BankersAcceptances

1 month 0.12 0.12 1.65

2 months 0.15 0.15 1.85

3 months 0.18 0.18 1.90

6 months 0.20 0.20 1.88

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.590 -0.581 -0.511

3 months -0.553 -0.545 -0.443

6 months -0.522 -0.515 -0.397

12 months -0.485 -0.477 -0.289

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 0.15 0.15 1.72

3 months 0.23 0.23 1.89

6 months 0.26 0.26 1.89

12 months 0.34 0.33 1.92

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 2.45 2.45 3.95

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.50

Britain 0.10 0.10 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 1.90 1.89 3.31

Bank money market-z 0.10 0.10 0.21

Interest Checking-z 0.05 0.05 0.07

6-Month Certif-z 0.17 0.17 0.53

12-Month Certif-z 0.24 0.24 0.74
30 Month Accounts-z 0.25 0.25 0.80

5-Year Certificates-z 0.40 0.41 1.10

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby
theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.

Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.

Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.15

1.00

0.85

0.70

0.55

0.40

4.90

4.00

3.10

2.20

1.30

0.40

S&P 100 CBOE

D J F M A M J J A S O N

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100s

CBOEs

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedDec2:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 6,613,957 -33,626 +2,937,409

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... ....

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 2,334 -299 + 2,331

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit .... .... -14

Float -464 -318 -82

OtherF.R.Assets 29,434 -1,017 + 9,015

TotalFedCredit# 7,177,035 -37,245 +3,157,735

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,500 + 14 + 450

Total 7,265,717 -37,097 +3,159,526

Currencyincirc 2,067,181 + 5,050 + 273,995

Treas.CashHldgs 44 -9 -142

Treas.FedDeposits 1,531,053 + 13,838 +1,184,082

ForeignFedDeposits 21,279 + 5 + 16,096

OtherFedDeposits 175,925 -81,394 + 117,315

OtherFRliab/cap 49,867 -1,245 + 4,789

Totalfactors 4,148,410 -70,769 +1,615,480

ReservesF.R.banks 3,117,307 + 33,671 +1,544,046

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,467,582 + 8,894 + 50,660

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev.Month% Year

MonthEnded October: Month Month Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 2,876,600 2,852,800 0.83 1,547,100

Nonborrowed Res 2,802,600 2,774,400 1.02 1,547,100

Borrowed Reserves 74,059 78,387 -5.52 63

MonetaryBase 4,917,200 4,880,400 0.75 3,252,800

SouthKorea(Won) .0009226 .0009049 1083.87 1105.07

SriLanka(Rupee) .0054 .0054 185.6500 185.3000

Sweden(Krona) .1182 .1177 8.4572 8.4979

Switzerland(Franc) 1.1212 1.1052 .8919 .9048

Taiwan(Dollar) .03544 .03506 28.216 28.519

Thailand(Baht) .03310 .03299 30.210 30.310

Turkey(New Lira)-d .1281 .1276 7.8047 7.8352

Ukraine(Hryvnia) .0353 .0350 28.3500 28.5500

U.K.(Pound) 1.3437 1.3314 .7442 .7511

Uruguay(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02345 .02344 42.645 42.655

----

Euro 1.2120 1.1962 .8250 .8359

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Friday,December04,2020

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina(Peso)-y .0122 .0123 81.6796 81.0683

Australia(Dollar) .7427 .7386 1.3464 1.3539

Bahrain(Dinar) 2.6521 2.6521 .3771 .3771

Brazil(Real) .1939 .1871 5.1563 5.3441

Bulgaria(Lev) .6201 .6116 1.6126 1.6351

Canada(Dollar) .7822 .7696 1.2785 1.2994

Chile(Peso) .001344 .001301 743.90 768.70

China(Renminbi) .1531 .1520 6.5316 6.5770

Colombia(Peso) .0002885 .0002772 3466.00 3606.90

Croatia(Kuna) .1606994 .1583180 6.22 6.32

Czech.Rep.(Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .04579 .04566 21.838 21.899

Denmark(Krone) .1628 .1607 6.1408 6.2209

EcuadorUSDollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt(Pound)-y .0638 .0640 15.6700 15.6372

HongKong(Dollar) .1290 .1290 7.7503 7.7506

Hungary(Forint) .003377 .003308 296.10 302.31

Iceland(Krona) .007969 .007524 125.49 132.91

India(Rupee) .01355 .01353 73.803 73.935

Indonesia(Rupiah) .0000709 .0000710 14105 14090

Israel(Shekel) .3058 .3016 3.2698 3.3161

Japan(Yen) .009598 .009608 104.19 104.08

Kazakhstan(Tenge) .002377 .002356 420.67 424.53

Kuwait(Dinar) 3.2856 3.2729 .3044 .3055

Macau(Pataca) .1252 .1252 7.9870 7.9890

Malaysia(Ringgit)-b .2463 .2457 4.0600 4.0695

Mexico(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0506 .0499 19.7732 20.0317

NewZealand(Dollar) .7041 .7023 1.4203 1.4239

Norway(Krone) .1136 .1132 8.8005 8.8347

Oman(Rial) 2.5976 2.5976 .3850 .3850

Pakistan(Rupee) .00625 .00628 159.985 159.350

Philippines(Peso) .02079 .02076 48.089 48.180

Poland(Zloty) .2712 .2668 3.6879 3.7483

Qatar(Rial) .2746 .2746 3.6416 3.6414

Russia(Ruble)-a .01349 .01314 74.122 76.079

SaudiArabia(Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7510 3.7506

Singapore(Dollar) .7487 .7473 1.3356 1.3382

SouthAfrica(Rand) .0657 .0657 15.2282 15.2309

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 12/4 11/27 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1843.00 1779.30 1459.65

Silver,troyounce 24.12 22.65 16.59

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1909.96 73.46 4.00

MapleLeaf 1928.33 91.83 5.00

MexicanPeso 2222.27 8.00 0.36

AustriaCrown 1803.14 3.00 0.17

AustriaPhil 1928.33 91.83 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1928.33 91.83 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice1836.50

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 12/3 11/25 Ago Chg.

923.32391.56 Gold mining 901.24 836.57546.24 +7.73

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus BullishSentiment 70% 70% 69%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 49.1% 47.3% 44.4%

Bearish 22.7 27.5 26.4

Neutral 28.3 25.3 29.3

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 51% 51% 51%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 51.3% 42.5% 42.3%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 22,673 r12,900 14,354

Municipal (z) 7,899 r2,723 17,809

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

1.36 1.47 2.63

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

2.65 2.67 3.46

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

51.4 55.2 76.1

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4643.80 4780.28 4059.14

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3367.71 3353.72 3078.37

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

328.53 329.77 301.16

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.13 2.13 2.77

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.49 3.51 3.61

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

+.61 +.51 –.37

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 1.96 2.01 2.84

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedNovember23

M1(seas.adjusted) 6,231.3 5,733.4 3,974.3 56.79

M1(notadjusted) 6,206.2 5,534.2 4,011.6 54.71

M2(seas.adjusted) 19,120.719,108.315,365.0 24.44

M2(notadjusted) 19,097.219,115.415,292.8 24.88

MonthendedOctober

M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) 1.124 1.113 1.197 -6.10

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedOctober

M1(seas.adjusted) 5,580.5r5,502.63,934.6 41.83

M2(seas.adjusted) r18,812.118,648.315,195.0 23.80

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

J F M A M J J A S O N

Barron's Gold Mining Index (901.24)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

All That Glistens:With the dollar weak

and rates dipping, gold’s price rose 3.6%

on the week, to end at $1,843 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 11/30 12/1 12/2 12/3 12/4

NYSE 1.45 1.30 .63 1.00 1.03

NYSEAmerican .53 .30 .42 1.77 1.42

Nasdaq .37 1.50 .61 1.14 1.92