◼ TECHNOLOGY Bloomberg Businessweek June 17, 201924
If theworldis indeedheadedfora ColdWar2.0
thatsplitstheglobeintoU.S.andChinesetechno-
logicalzones,thenew“digitalironcurtain”that
separatesthemmaywellhavetorunthroughthe
heartofthisblandindustrialparkinOxfordshire,
just off the M40 highway from London to
Birmingham.Ononesideoftheparkloomsa
gleamingAmazon.comInc.warehouse.Across
thestreetis theHuaweiCyberSecurityEvaluation
Centre,a modestbrickbuildingthat’sunremark-
ablebutfortheone-wayglassthatobscuresits
windows,theCCTVcamerasthatbristlefromits
walls,andtheoversizeair-conditioningunitslined
upoutsidetocooltheserverswithin.
Partlyonthestrengthoftheworkatthecenter,
whose 38 securityinspectorsarepaidbyHuawei
TechnologiesCo.butsubjectedtothesamevet-
tingrequiredforU.K.intelligenceofficers,thegov-
ernmenthasmadea preliminarydecisiontolet
theChinesetechgiantbuildnoncoreelementsof
Britain’ssensitive5Ginfrastructure,soonexpected
toconnecteverythingfromdriverlesscarstorefrig-
erators.ThatwoulddefyintenseU.S.pressureto
excludeHuaweifromallied5Gnetworks.Thedeci-
sionisn’tfinal,butwhena U.S.allyascloseas
Britainis thisreluctanttotakesidesina dispute
betweentheworld’stwoeconomicandtechnolog-
icalsuperpowers,it suggeststhatanycoldwarto
comeis likelytobearlittleresemblancetothelast.
Foronething,WinstonChurchill’sIronCurtain
metaphormaybeill-suitedtoa digitalversion
that’sforcedtofollowa spaghettilikepaththrough
countriesthat,liketheU.K.,areeitherunwilling
orunabletochoose.Thecontestwouldalsoplay
outbetweentwodeeplyintertwinedcapitalist
economies,oftenjoinedbycommonglobaltech-
nologicalstandards,ratherthanbetweenthe
opposedandmutuallyexcludingeconomicsys-
temsoftheSovietera.AChinesegovernment
whitepaperreleasedonJune2 described the two
economies as a single industrial chain “bound
in a union that ismutuallybeneficial.” Such lan-
guage would havebeenunimaginable coming
from Moscow in the1970s.“Itwillbetotallydifferent,becausetheSoviet
Unionwascompletelyshutdown,andChina
cannotbe,”saysFanGang,directorofChina’s
National EconomicResearch Institute.Think
China’sestimated$1trillion“BeltandRoad”ini-
tiative,stretchingfromJakartatoNairobiand
Rotterdam.“Therealquestionis,whowillsetthe
standards?Whowillhavetheadvantage?”
Ofcourse,security-drivenpoliticshavea wayof
overridingeconomicinterests.There’snodenying
theferocityoftheemergingrivalrybetweenthe
U.S.andChinaon5G,artificialintelligence,robot-
ics,geneediting,andthedataflowsthatfuelthem
all.If thedividedfuturecomestopass,theswath
oftheglobealignedwithChinamightbuydriver-
lesscarsfromthelikesofBaiduandscrollWeChat
andAlibabaonHuawei’s5Gnetworks,underthe
watchfuleyesofcensorswhocancontrolthedata
throughserversontheirshores,whilea more
laissez-fairemodelpersistsintheotherpartofthe
world,ruledbyGoogle,Amazon,Facebook,Cisco,
andtheoddEuropeancompany,suchasEricsson.
InMay,shortlyafterU.S.SecretaryofState
MikePompeowarnedtheU.K.againstgoing“wob-
bly”onHuawei,Washingtoneffectivelybanned
theChinesecompanyfromdoingbusinessonits
shores.Chinarespondedwitha plantocreate
itsown“unreliableentities”listtopunishcom-
paniesthatcutoffChineseonesfornoncommer-
cialreasons.AccordingtoChina’sstate-affiliated
media,Huawei’s 33 Americansupplierswould
becandidates,includingIntel,Microsoft,Oracle,
andQualcomm.AndwhiletheWhiteHousehas
cutbackonvisasforChinesestudents,363,000of
whomwerestudyingintheU.S.lastyear,Beijing
issueda June4 travelwarningtocitizensplan-
ningtotourtheU.S.,citingdangerfromshootings,
robberies,andthefts.Lastyear,Chinesevisitors
spent$36.4billion in the U.S. A disentanglement
appears to be under way.
In a further potential escalation, Bloomberg
News revealed last month that China is developing
plans to weaponize its dominance of the supply
of rare-earth metals used to make electric cars as● The high end of an
estimate of the share
of the world’s cobalt
and lithium controlled
by China65%
● Inanever-more-interconnectedworld,traditionalalliancesarerarelyabsoluteenoughfora digitalironcurtainOur Next ‘Cold War’ Won’t Look
Much Like the Old One