◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek June 17, 201940
THEBOTTOMLINE ThetiniestmemberofOPECis a former
Spanishcolonydominatedforalmosta half-centurybythefamilyof
PresidentTeodoroObiang.● WhofillsthemwillcomedowntomuchmorethanqualificationsMerkelandMacronFaceOff
OvertheEU’s TopSeats
Ever since the European Central Bank was
establishedin1998,theappointmentofitspres-
identhasbeendictatedbypolitics.It’sa fight
thatencompassesthehistoricalrivalrybetween
FranceandGermany,andit’sasmucha struggle
forinfluenceandpowerasit is abouta visionfor
monetarypolicy.
The 2019 versionoftheraceisprovingtobe
nodifferent.ThenewECBchiefwon’ttakeoffice
untilcurrentPresidentMarioDraghistepsdown
inOctober.ButGermanChancellorAngelaMerkel,
who’spreparingtoleaveofficeandhasaneyeon
herlegacyafter 14 years as the European Union’s
most powerful figure, is already squaring off against
French President Emmanuel Macron, who wants
to reform the continent in his own image. And it
gets more complicated. For the first time, the ECB
job is up for grabs at the same time as the other
top EU positions: the president of the European
Commission, the EU’s executive arm, and the pres-
ident of the European Council, who chairs sum-
mits of leaders. The selection of a candidate for
any one of these jobs wouldn’t necessarily affect
decisions on the others, yet EU officials acknowl-
edge that government chiefs—the ultimate arbiters
of who gets what—are discussing them as a package.
By law, the EU must divide its top jobs alonggeographical lines. At the most basic level, this
means giving as many jobs to the German-led group
of (mainly) northern European countries that pro-
mote fiscal responsibility as to southern nations,
arguably including France, who are more dovish.
That means there’s a lot of horse-trading going
on. “The challenges that the euro zone is going to
face over the next few years—the runup to the next
recession, possibly a crisis in Italy—means that it
really should be the best man or woman for the
job,” says Christian Odendahl, chief economist of
the Centre for European Reform in Berlin. “But the
job is more political than ever, so I’m not sure that
person is in the running.”
The bundling up of EU jobs means, for instance,
that Jens Weidmann, the hawkish Bundesbank
president who many EU officials say is one of the
front-runnerstoreplaceDraghi,is unlikelytogetthe
jobshouldMerkelpushfora German—orevena non-
German whom Berlin supports—to become head of
the European Commission. Unluckily for Weidmann,
Manfred Weber, a politician allied to Merkel’s own
Christian Democratic Union, is a favorite for the
commission job. The focus for the ECB would then
point toward François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor
of the Banque de France, or French ECB Executive
Board member Benoit Coeure.“The job is
more political
than ever”and spanning several blocks seal off Obiang’s
private compound. “This is our reality,” says Edu,
who goes by the name Negro Bey. “Our wealth is
not shared fairly.”
On the sidelines of an oil conference at the
Sipopo conference center in April, Obiang Lima
says foreign attempts to discredit his father have
failed and that the government continues to use oil
revenue to improve the lives of Equatoguineans.
But poverty has risen since oil prices dropped in
2014, and the country’s production was halved to
120,000 barrels per day from more than 300,000
during peak years, according to the latest World
Bank Macro Poverty Outlook.
“Life is getting harder,” says Marcial Abaga, a
member of the opposition Convergence for SocialDemocracy Party, whose home in Fishtown, like
many others, has no running water. “If you com-
plain about living conditions, you’re considered
an enemy of the state, and you’re ostracized. You
becomelikeme.”
Meanwhile, at 77, Teodoro Obiang isn’t
loosening his grip on power, despite rumors of ill
health and alleged coup attempts. When recent
waves of unrest unseated autocrats from Sudan
to Zimbabwe, Obiang was unshaken. He’s now the
world’s longest-serving president. And he and his
family are likely to extend their hold until their oil
runs dry. �Alonso Soto