◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek June 17, 201941ILLUSTRATION
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But here things get even more tangled: Weber is
seen as something of a lightweight, and it became
clear at a summit of EU leaders in May that he
doesn’t have the overwhelming support of many
of them, officials say. His downfall could lead to a
Macron-backed figure getting the commission post
instead—perhaps Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief
Brexit coordinator, who denies he wants it but is
hawking his credentials around European capi-
tals, or Denmark’s Margrethe Vestager, the bloc’s
high-profile antitrust czar who belongs to Macron’s
centrist European alliance. Giving it to either of
these contenders would shift attention for the ECB
role back to Weidmann and create a whole new set
ofif-thenconditionsaroundtheleadershipofthe
EuropeanCouncil.
DraghitookovertheECBinNovember 2011
at the height of the euro area’s debt crisis, when
the very existence of the currency bloc was under
threat.Hewoulddo“whateverit takes”tokeepthe
eurointact,hesaidin2012,followingupwiththe
creationofa radicaltoolnowheraldedashaving
prevented the euro from imploding, and then
expansionary monetary policy to stave off defla-
tion. Some of the candidates to replace him think
those measures need to keep going for a bit longer,
or even be stepped up, while others say it’s time to
start putting away the crisis tools. Despite its sta-
tus as the euro area’s largest economy, Germany
has never had an ECB president. That counts in
Weidmann’s favor. “If the Germans really want it,
and they want to go all out to get it, then they prob-
ably will,” says Tim Jones, an analyst at policy con-
sultants Medley Global Advisors in London. “But
the question is, do the Germans really want it?”
EU officials with knowledge of the discussions
over the appointment say they’re not convinced.
Although the German government makes the
right noises in public, behind the scenes its dip-
lomatsarea lotlessinsistent.Inprivatemeetings
they’vetalkedupCoeure’schances,whichis either
adouble bluff to confuse the French or a sign that
Merkel has other priorities. Those same EU officials
aren’t convinced Macron wants the ECB job either,
believing instead that securing the top spot on the
commissionwillputhimina betterpositionto
startremakingEUpolicies,suchasbypersuading
countries to pool resources and sovereignty more
than they do now.
Germany has always preferred to lead from the
shadows by placing its civil servants in influen-
tial positions rather than by having its people in
the spotlight. That’s why Weidmann wouldn’t be
too difficult for Merkel to sacrifice, officials say,
particularly if the alternative is France driving aTHEBOTTOMLINE Thecontesttobecomethenextpresidentof
the European Central Bank is turning into a proxy battle between
Germany and France over the power to shape EU policy.hard bargain in other areas of EU policy, such as
theplantogivetheeuroareaa centralizedpot
ofmoney,whichcouldbeusedtofightfuture
financialcrises,orruleslimitingnationaldebt
anddeficits.Germanymayevenpropose an
ECBcandidatewhoisn’tWeidmann.Onename
mentioned is Klaus Regling, head of the euro
zone’s bailout fund, who has European policy
experience but lacks Weidmann’s track record of
opposing ECB stimulus.
Smaller EU governments (that is, not Germany or
France) have begun to express frustration in Brussels
at being kept out of the picture, officials say. The
non-German,non-FrenchcandidatesthatBerlinand
ParismightbeabletoagreeonaremainlyFinns—
former Finnish central bank governor Erkki Liikanen
and his successor, Olli Rehn, best known for being
the EU’s economy commissioner at the height of the
euro area crisis. There’s also one Dutchman in the
mix: Klaas Knot, head of his country’s central bank.
For all Europe’s pledges of a push for gender equal-
ity, none of the likely candidates is a woman.
Ultimately, the ECB decision will come down
towhichleaderis preparedtosacrificehisorher
candidate.A summitofleadersisscheduledfor
June20 and 21, but EU officials warn that a solution
may be some way off. There’s one wild card: What
will Merkel do after she steps down as chancellor?
Despite her denials, she may make an 11th-hour
bid to become European Council president. If she
does, Germany probably won’t have an ECB chief.
But it might be quite content. �Ian Wishart and
Paul Gordon