The Europe of Two Armed Campsy 1905—1914 875increasing care and were attentive to the capacity of their armed forces.
Thus, perceptions of the balance of military power came into play in the
international crises that led to war in 1914.
The Balkan Tinderbox
The Balkans increasingly became the key to maintaining peace in Europe
(see Map 22.2). In 1897, Russia and Austria-Hungary had agreed informally
to respect the status quo in the region. However, cultural and political
nationalism continued to grow among the South Slavs living within the
Austro-Hungarian Empire, in Serbia, or under Ottoman rule. In the
Balkans, the vast majority of peoples had remained indifferent or ignorant of
nationalist identities until at least the beginning of the twentieth century.
Religious identities—Greek, Russian, or Bulgarian Orthodox, Muslim,
Catholic, or Jewish—had always defined a sense of community, along with
regional and village identities. Then, encouraged by the new states carved
out of what had been Ottoman territory, national identities began to take
hold. This made southeastern Europe ever more the focus of the rivalry
between Austria-Hungary and Russia.
When a bloody revolution led to the assassination of the king and queen
of Serbia in 1903, Russia quickly recognized the new king, Peter, hoping
that Pan-Slav elements would dominate. Fearing any delay would push Ser
bia closer to Russia, Austria-Hungary recognized the fait accompli. The
Serb parliament voiced its unqualified support for Russian ambitions in
East Asia and its disastrous 1904-1905 war against Japan. Serb nationalists
began to call for union with Serbs in Macedonia, which was still part of the
Ottoman Empire and was peopled by Macedonians, Serbs, Bulgarians,
Sephardic Jews, and Greeks, who had largely gotten along in the past. As
Greek and Bulgarian Orthodox churches battled for the allegiance of peas
ants, the strident, aggressive calls of various nationalist groups helped cre
ate a nationalism that had previously existed on only a superficial level
among elites. Now Greek, Bulgarian, and Macedonian armed groups oper
ated inside Macedonia, as did Bulgarian and Macedonian nationalists.
Provocative addresses to minorities worsened ethnic tensions in the region.
Religion became much more identified with emerging national identities.
Relations between Serbia and Austria-Hungary further deteriorated.
When Serbia tried to lessen its economic dependence on Austria-Hungary
(the destination of almost all Serb exports) by signing a commercial treaty
with Bulgaria, Vienna responded by forbidding the importation of Serb live
stock. Thus began an economic battle in 1906 that became known in much
of Europe as the “Pig War,” as the humble pig formed a basis of Serbia’s
fragile agricultural economy. The Serbs resourcefully found new markets for
their pigs. The Habsburg government, despite the lack of Hungarian support
for economic retaliation, responded in 1908 by announcing the construc
tion of a new railroad that would further isolate Serbia economically. Serb