418 • 20 THE GULF WAR AND THE PEACE PROCESSMubarak since 1981, and Saudi Arabia by King Fahd since 1982. However,
these countries' security forces make such a revolution seem improbable.
A more enticing prospect would be to take over one of the emerging Cau¬
casian or Central Asian republics, among which Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
and Turkmenistan have oil reserves that are just beginning to be tapped.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran have all contended for influence in the
lands where czars and commissars formerly held sway.
Most of the Middle East's problems, such as overpopulation, scarcity of
water and other resources, maldistribution of wealth, and inadequate in¬
frastructure for industrialization, will not be solved by combining Islam
with politics. Islamic leaders can set a higher moral tone for their societies,
help build democratic institutions, and denounce leaders who fail to serve
their people. No king or president now heading a Muslim Middle Eastern
state possesses much popularity or vision. No one can predict how long
they will last. But the Middle Eastern states' lack of legitimacy will make
their subjects seek solutions elsewhere, possibly in some form of religious
fundamentalism. In the past, state control of radio and television broad¬
casting could restrict what the people learned, but as satellite TV stations
and "dish" receivers spread, not to mention the Internet, many Middle
Easterners have gained access to facts and ideas that may endanger their
governments—and their Western backers—in the future.