backing the ussr 2.0the initial incorporation of Crimea into the Russian Empire
in 1783 as a glorious moment in history that paved the way
for Russian expansion to Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and
Central Asia. In the large historical picture, the collapse of the
Soviet Union reversed those territorial gains. Russia’s post- Soviet
borders resemble its pre- Crimea eighteenth- century borders. The
annexation of Crimea could thus trigger a sense of the tide of
history turning back in Russia’s favour. These considerations –
as well as the fact that non- Slavic Crimean Tatars comprise 12
per cent of Crimea’s population – could boost support for the
annexation of Crimea among Russia’s ethnic non- Slavs who in
2013 backed expansion to a USSR 2.0. The non- Slavic popula-
tion factor, however, means that support among ethnic non- Slavs
for a putative expansion into the overwhelmingly Slavic Eastern
Ukraine would hinge on historical- institutional understandings,
that is, on how strongly they may associate the concept of
Novorossiia with a path toward the ‘USSR 2.0’ option.
These considerations indicate that Moscow is likely to enjoy
strong baseline support for territorial expansion among Russia’s
ethnic minorities regardless of how long the patriotic euphoria
over Crimea lasts. However, the degree of support among specific
groups of ethnic non- Russians will probably depend on the nature
of such an expansion – territorial (through annexation or acces-
sion to Russia) or institutional (through Russia- dominant entities
like the Eurasian Union). Persistent support across all ethnic non-
Russian groups is more likely if territorial acquisitions occur first
in predominantly Slavic areas and are seen as part of a longer-
term institutional expansion toward the ‘USSR 2.0’.
Notes
- With reference to the data provided by Russia’s Federal Migration
Service. - Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Podcast, ‘Russia’s Looming
Tatar Problem’, 4 April 2014, available at <www.rferl.org/content/
podcast- russias- looming- tatar- problem/25321627.html> (last acc-
essed 17 July 2014). - The number of respondents was 723 in Bashkortostan, 504 in