the new russian nationalismA ‘rally- around- the- leader’ effect
Turning to changes in patterns of public opinion from May 2013
to November 2014, we detect an impressive ‘rally- around- the-
leader’ phenomenon, especially as to presidential popularity,
as can be seen in Figure 7.2. Asked for whom they would vote
if presidential elections were held on the day of the survey, and
given a list of prominent political leaders who are often discussed
as potential candidates, 40 per cent of all respondents in 2013
declared they would vote for Putin, compared to 7.4 per cent
for the second- place candidate, the veteran populist- nationalist
Vladimir Zhirinovskii. By November 2014, the share of those
who would choose Putin had skyrocketed to 68 per cent, with
Zhirinovskii still second but now netting only 4.4 per cent of
the hypothetical vote.^5 These Putin gains came at the expense of
nearly every other potential candidate and drew in many who
had previously said they would not vote at all, had indicated
that they were undecided or had refused to answer. This cor-
roborates research by other survey agencies, such as the Levada
Centre, which observed a significant jump in Putin’s ratings in
connection with the March 2014 annexation of Crimea and the
president’s speech announcing and justifying that move (Balzer
2014).
Our study cannot tell us how solid or deeply felt this surge in
support for Putin is. It is also possible that by 2014 some people
may have become more reluctant to reveal their true presiden-
tial preferences to pollsters than they were in 2013, and named
Putin just to be on the safe side. Possibly supportive of such an
interpretation is that not only did the share of respondents who
Table 7.1 ‘What is Novorossiia?’(per cent)
About the same thing as the Donbas 30
All of the regions of Ukraine along the Azov and Black Seas 16
The Black Sea coast of Ukraine 13
The Black Sea coast of Ukraine plus Moldova and the Black Sea
coast of Russia
7All Azov and Black Sea oblasts of Ukraine plus Moldova 5
Do not know what Novorossiia is 28