changes in russian nationalist public opinion 2013–14felt that the country’s economy had improved in the preceding
year, with the majority (54 per cent) opining that the economy had
remained essentially stable and only 21 per cent judging it to have
become worse. Eighteen months later, after the events in Ukraine
discussed here, this had changed dramatically: a striking 55 per
cent now said that the economy had gotten worse in the previous
year, with just 9 per cent seeing improvement and 30 per cent no
change. We note a similar shift in how people reported change in
the financial situation of their own family in the twelve months
preceding each survey: in 2013 some 19 per cent saw improve-
ment, 60 per cent saw no change and 18 per cent perceived decline;
by 2014, a full 45 per cent bemoaned their worsening personal
financial well- being and only 8 per cent cited improvement, with
42 per cent sensing no change from the previous year.
More ominous for the Kremlin is that respondents appear to be
linking these economic perceptions to the annexation of Crimea.
Interestingly, 55 per cent agreed with the statement that the incor-
poration of Crimea has been ‘too expensive’, with only 36 per
cent disagreeing. Of course, we must interpret this finding with
caution since it could be interpreted in at least two ways. One
interpretation is that ‘too expensive’ is understood as meaning
‘not worth it’. Another is that the annexation is supported, but
that it should not have cost Russia so much – for example, the
West should have simply recognised Crimea as rightfully Russian
instead of imposing sanctions that created an artificial cost that
ought not have to be borne by Russia.
To check whether people were responding sincerely to this ques-
tion, it was only asked directly of roughly half the sample, and the
other half of the sample (randomly selected) were asked it in an
indirect way that did not require respondents to state their views
explicitly.^9 The indirect method, which is less precise but more
likely to elicit honest answers, found that only 38 per cent agreed
that the Crimean acquisition was too expensive. Interestingly,
this at least raises the possibility that what people are reluctant
to admit to a survey researcher in Russia is not that Crimea is
too expensive, but that they actually believe it is worth the eco-
nomic price. This would be consistent with the finding that the
annexation remains broadly supported and Putin’s ratings have