the new russian nationalismskyrocketed even while Russians’ views of economic performance
have turned sharply negative.^10 In any case, our study uses multi-
ple methods to establish that from 38 to 55 per cent of the popu-
lation is unhappy with the economics of the Crimean annexation
- and that, however one interprets it, does not bode well for the
Kremlin on the road ahead.
Conclusions
Overall, our study indicates that Russia in the interim between
our two surveys experienced much more of a ‘rally- around- the-
leader’ effect than an upsurge in nationalism per se, although
this is partly because Russian nationalism was already extremely
strong prior to the Ukraine crisis and Crimean annexation. That
said, the survey indicates certain specific, smaller- scale changes
in the Russian nationalist landscape that are important to note.
First, perceptions of ethnic as opposed to state identity underwent
different sorts of shifts. While there was relatively little change
in patterns of ethnic pride and xenophobia, people had become
slightly (but only slightly) more proud to be associated with
the Russian state, even as they increasingly viewed this state as
multi- ethnic and became more positive to its diversity. Second,
we noted a widening gap between public and private identity
preferences, particularly with respect to ‘defraternisation’ with
Ukrainians, despite Kremlin efforts to portray Ukrainians as a
brotherly people who should be returned to the Russian fold.
Third, our findings indicate that support for inclusion of diverse
ethnic populations already present within a state may be inversely
related to support for inclusion of new ethnic groups into a state
through territorial expansion.
Above and beyond these nuances, we also observe that pref-
erences for national inclusion and exclusion appear to be more
entrenched and durable than may have been expected. On a
considerable number of survey items, we have found surprisingly
little change – surprising considering the surge of nationalist and
patriotic rhetoric and symbolism that filled the state- dominated
mass media following the successful ouster of Yanukovych by
the Euromaidan protesters in Kyiv and Russia’s swift annexa-