37tostartlookingforjobs.Sheinitially
foundworkasa hostessata restau-
rant,onlytohaveitcloseafterher
firstdaybecauseofthevirus.Meeting
peopleina citywheresheknewno
oneprovedchallengingwithsomuch
shutdown.
Then,inJune,oneofher former
collegeclassmatescontactedheron
LinkedIn,saying Redfinwas hiring
productmanagers.Njoroge,whois
Black,initiallyhesitated,becauseshe
didn’twanttomovetoSanFrancisco.
She’dnevervisited,butitsextreme
wealth inequality and widespread
homelessnesswerea turnoff.A friend
hadalsotoldherthathe’dbecome
“hyperaware”ofhowfewotherBlack
peoplewereinthecity.Overthesum-
mer, though, Njoroge realized she
couldworkfromHouston,atleastuntil
theendoftheyear.
Herjobevencamewitha BayArea
salarydespiteherlivingwithroom-
matesina city wherethecostsare
about45%lower.Asmuchasshefeels
productiveworkingremotely,thereare
drawbacks.“It’sbeena hardadjust-
menttolearnhowtomakecasualcon-
versation”withco-workers,shesays.
Njoroge plans toeventually move
totheBayAreaonceRedfin’soffices
reopen, though it’s unclearwhen
thatwillbe.
Hersituationhintsatthepoten-
tialcomplexitiestocomeforRedfin
anditsemployees.Aseniorproduct
managermaybeabletoacquireacre-
ageinBendanddohisjobremotelyin
a waythata morejuniorstafferfrom
Houston,withnobuilt-in network,
can’t.Anotherbigquestionishowto
treatworkerswhowanttocomeback
totheofficeforonlya fewdaysa week.
Fornow,Redfinisn’tmakinga distinc-
tionbetweenthosewhocomeinevery
dayandthosewhosometimeswork
fromhome,whichmeansGrigson,
theAirstreamguy,willstillbeableto
collecthisSeattlepaycheck,evenif he
occasionallylogsinfromWallaWalla
whilehebuildsa houseoutthere.Not
thatanybodyiscomingbacksoon.In
October,amidyetanotherwaveof
Covidinfections,Kelmanannounced
that Redfinwon’texpectpeoplein
itsofficesatleastuntilJune1. Healso
saidthosewhomovedonlytemporar-
ilyduringthepandemicwouldn’thave
theirpaychanged.
Ingeneral,Kelmansays,hewouldn’t
besurprisedifsalarieseventuallyinch
upinsmallercitiesasmorecompanies
allowforremotework.Andtheprom-
isedcostsavingsonrealestatemight
notbeasgreatassomeexpect.The
overallneedforofficespacecoulddrop
about10%to15%intheU.S.,according
totheresearchfirmGreenStreet,but
thatcouldbeoffsetif companiesspread
employeesoutmoretomakethemfeel
morecomfortable.AsFacebookCEO
MarkZuckerbergconcededina live-
streamwithemployeesinMay,“it’s
reallyunknownwhattheeconomics
ofthisaregoingtolooklike.”
Theuncertaintygoeswellbeyond
realestateandbusiness.Wherepeo-
plelivewillhaveprofoundimplica-
tionsoneverything,includingpolitics
andclimatechange.Anexodusfrom
Californiacouldmakethestatemore
competitiveforRepublicansandturn
Texas moretowardDemocrats.But
it’s also possible that people who
leavewillselectregionswherethey
feelmoreamongtheirpoliticaltribe,
deepening divides.Teleworkcould
significantly decreasecarbonemis-
sions,butit couldalsoleadtodirtier
commutingpatternsifmorepeople
endupdrivinginfromexurbsa few
timesa week,ratherthanridingpublic
transitorwalkingfromanapartment
neartheoffice.
Whatthismeansforcitiesis goingto
becomplicated,too.Youngerworkers
willprobablystillcometourbanareastostarttheircareersandhavefun.“For
highlyeducatedpeople, cities are mar-
riage markets,” says Jenny Schuetz, a
fellow at the Brookings Institution who
studies housing policy. Married strivers
may also stick around to be close to the
action, or if both partners can’t find ful-
filling work in the Zoom town of their
dreams. But lots of other people are
going to decide they can get more of
what they want in cheaper cities or sub-
urbs, whether that’s access to nature,
a home with a yard, or good schools,
even if the dating scene leaves some-
thing to be desired.
This potential shift could have dev-
astating consequences for extremely
expensive places, but it could also
spread wealth more evenly. Before
the pandemic, “America had become
less mobile than almost at any point
in our history,” Kelman says. “No mat-
ter what the economic cost of being in
San Francisco, people would pay it.”
Having more remote workers means
“wages in Texas are going up,” he says.
So are housing prices. “You can’t have
a $2 million, 2,000-square-foot house
in San Francisco and a $200,000 house
in Dallas that are basically the same for
very long when there are airplanes and
internet connections and Zoom.”
None of this makes the decisions
employees have to make over the next
several months any easier, especially
for those who relocated in a hurry.
Musiker, the Redfin communications
director, has until May to figure out
whether she’s staying in Rochester
permanently and taking the pay cut.
She’s still not sure—and the decision
will depend partly on whether her hus-
band is allowed to work remotely after
the pandemic—but she’s more open to
living upstate than she ever thought
she’d be. “We were making a lot of
sacrifices in Brooklyn,” Musiker says.
In Rochester, “we get so much more
for our money.” <BW>“it’s only just started. there’s going to be
a reverse of the urban boom”
Bloomberg Businessweek December 21, 2020