16 January 2021 | New Scientist | 7THE highly contagious B.1.1.7.
variant of the coronavirus, which
was first detected in the UK, has
officially reached 10 states in the
US, but infectious disease experts
say the true extent of its spread is
unclear due to a lack of monitoring.
Texas, Minnesota and New York
are among the states that have
detected the variant. Given it has
been found in 10 states, it is likely
to be present in more, says Lane
Warmbrod at Johns Hopkins
University in Maryland. Still,
she says, “it is hard to know how
widespread the variant is because
we don’t have sufficient genetic
epidemiology capacity or
capability in the US”.
William Hanage at Harvard
University says the overall picture
is unclear due to insufficient
monitoring. Community spread
is occurring in at least California,Florida and Colorado, he says,
though in each community the
variant is rare – for now.
The variant probably accounts
for about 1 per cent of cases in the
US today, estimates Eric Topol at
Scripps Research Translational
Institute in California. But the
picture is foggy, he says.
“Surveillance is extremely poor.”
New daily cases in the US
currently stand at 245,000 for the
seven-day average, but Gigi
Gronvall, also at Johns Hopkins
University, says the UK variant
isn’t the reason for the surge in
transmission. “The variant is
almost certainly not driving our
current explosion of cases, or we
would have more immediatelyfound it in many states,” she says.
Even if B.1.1.7. isn’t yet driving an
acceleration in US cases, there is
reason to think it will in the future,
says Warmbrod, given research in
the UK has found it to be between
40 and 70 per cent more
transmissible than earlier variants.
When the variant is established in
the US, says Topol, it will trigger
“a major surge that makes the US
holiday surges look minimal”.
Surveillance to detect the spread
of the variant in the US is poor, but
not as bad as some recent media
reports suggest, says Gronvall.
“It’s terrible by comparison
with the UK. Recall that the UK
has sequenced around 5 per cent
of cases, which is huge. TheTen US states have recorded cases of the UK variant, while Australia has
brought in measures to curb its spread, report Donna Lu and Adam VaughanUK variant spreads in US
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comparative figure in the US is
10 times smaller,” says Hanage.
In Australia, where the spread of
the coronavirus has been brought
under control so far, detection
of the UK variant has led to swift
action to try to prevent any new
outbreaks. On 7 January, a cleaner
for a hotel quarantine facility in
Brisbane tested positive for the
variant. It had previously onlybeen detected in returning
international passengers in hotel
quarantine, but this is the first
time someone had been in the
Australian community while
potentially infectious.
The following morning, with no
further positive cases, Queensland
state premier Annastacia
Palaszczuk announced a short,
citywide circuit-breaker lockdown
affecting some 2 million residents.
The city, where life has been
normal for months, hadn’t locked
down since the first wave in
Australia in March.
“Doing three days now could
avoid doing 30 days in the future,”
said Palaszczuk on 8 January.
Within days, contact tracers
identified around 150 of the
cleaner’s casual and close contacts,
who have all been quarantined.
The city recorded only one new
case of community transmission
during the lockdown period – the
cleaner’s partner – but it is too early
to rule out further transmission.
“We have to wait two weeks since
the last possible exposure that
index case had,” says Raina
MacIntyre, an infectious diseases
expert at the University of New
South Wales in Sydney.
In response to the threat posed
by new variants, the Australian
government has brought forward
its plan for mass vaccinations by
a month. They are now set to start
in February. ❚A patient in Brooklyn,
New York, arrives
at hospital“The UK variant will trigger
a major surge in the US
that will make the holiday
surges look minimal”Daily coronavirus news round-up
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