YEAR-OVER-YEAR GDP GROWTH FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES STRINGENT NATIONWIDE CONFINEMENT*BRAZIL CANADA MEXICO U.S.
-30%-20-10010%FRANCE GERMANY SWEDEN U.K.
-30%-20-10010%CHINA INDIA JAPAN SOUTH KOREA
-30%-20-10010%JAN. 1, 2020 JAN. 10, 2021 JAN. 1, 2020 JAN. 10, 2021 JAN. 1, 2020 JAN. 10, 2021 JAN. 1, 2020 JAN. 10, 2021AMERICASEUROPEASIA112 FORTUNE FEBRUARY/MARCH 2021THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LOCKDOWNS
ONE BY-PRODUCT OF THE GLOBAL PANDEMIC has been to speed up tech-driven innovation in a range of areas—including economics.
Data scientists have long sought to improve real-time GDP estimates. And the challenge has become more urgent as policymakers try to
balance the COVID-19 health crisis with the toll of lockdowns. So Nicolas Woloszko, an economist at the OECD, developed a system that
uses Google Trends data and machine learning to provide weekly snapshots of GDP in 46 countries with a high degree of accuracy. Here,
we’ve overlaid Woloszko’s GDP numbers for the past year with data from the University of Oxford on strict lockdowns in 12 major econo-
mies. One conclusion: With a virus as devastating as SARS-CoV-2, there is no universal policy blueprint for success. —BRIAN O’KEEFETHE CARTOGRAPHERINFOGRAPHIC BY
NICOLAS RAPPSOURCES: GDP WEEKLY SIMULATION BY NICOLAS WOLOSZKO FOR THE OECD WEEKLY TRACKER OF
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY; CONFINEMENT DATA FROM THE OXFORD COVID-19 GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TRACKER*INDEX VALUE ABOVE 70 ON THE OXFORD
CONFINEMENT STRINGENCY INDEX (0–100)