BIG TECH AS A SHARE OF THE S&P 500 INDEX0510152025%FACEBOOKALPHABETAMAZONMICROSOFTAPPLE5 COMPANIES’ AGGREGATE: 23.1%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ’211-YEAR RETURNS FOR TECH STOCKSAMERICANS’ OPINION ON TECH FIRMSSOURCE: BLOOMBERGOPINION ON CONSOLIDATION AMONG TECH FIRMSRESPONDENTS WHO SAY THESE COMPANIES SHOULD BE BROKEN UPNOT
CONCERNED
18%SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED
26%VERY
CONCERNED
41%DON’T KNOW/
NO ANSWER
15%SOURCE: JANUARY 2021 FORTUNE/SURVEY MONKEY POLLNONE OF THEMMICROSOFTAPPLEALPHABETAMAZONFACEBOOK45%19%22%24%27%35%SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
19.1% (TOTAL RETURNS FROM 1/24/20 THROUGH 1/25/21)27.6%29.2%40.6%76.9%APPLE 81.2%
AMAZON
MICROSOFT
ALPHABET
FACEBOOK
S&P 500 INDEXFORTUNE FEBRUARY/MARCH 2021 516.2% in the same span. For now, it seems the market is
shrugging off any concerns about onerous new regulation
or tax increases. Meanwhile, it almost appears as if the big
banks are competing to issue the most bullish GDP fore-
cast: JPMorgan Chase predicts the U.S. economy will grow
5.8% in 2021. Morgan Stanley sees 6.4%. And Goldman
Sachs is forecasting 6.6%. That’s a lot of pent-up demand, a
belief that consumers will get Normal with a vengeance.
Much of the confidence, of course, stems from the early
rollout of highly effective vaccines—developed, in a New
way, at record speed—to counter COVID-19. (For insight
into Pfizer’s successful effort, in partnership with BioNTech,
see “The Conversation” in this issue.) After a bumpy start,
the vaccination distribution effort in the U.S. is picking up
speed, even as the virus mutates and becomes more infec-
tious. President Biden first announced a goal of distributing
100 million doses of vaccine in his first 100 days in office; by
late January, he was pledging the U.S. would have enough
doses for 300 million Americans by the end of summer.
In international relations, the New Normal may in fact
resemble the Old Normal. The Biden administration will
move quickly to smooth over ruffled relationships with
key allies. A return to a less disruptive style of diplomacy
in trade negotiations and the restoration of a globalist
mindset in the White House add up to a predictability
that business can embrace.
Still, there are stiff challenges ahead: The pandemic
has only deepened and highlighted the problem of income
inequality in the U.S. And it has further disrupted the eco-
system of business, as thousands of small enterprises have
closed even as corporate behemoths, particularly the tech
giants on which we’re increasingly dependent, have surged.
Technology has been our salvation as we’ve
muddled our way through the pandemic. During lock-
downs, it has allowed us to Zoom with colleagues, to binge-
watch, to shop our looks online, and to socialize in isolation.
But to many, this New doesn’t feel Normal. Regulators,
elected officials of both parties, and consumers are getting a
little uncomfortable with Big Tech’s heft and sway. In Janu-
ary, a Fortune and SurveyMonkey poll found that 64% of
U.S. adults would like to see the federal government investi-
gate at least one large tech company for antitrust violations.
(Google and Facebook are already on the docket.)
Bremmer believes that the actions of the social media
companies to “deplatform” President Trump in his final,
dark days in office add an unexpected dynamic to the
debate. In the eyes of Republicans, he says, tech regulation
is now a partisan battle. “The tech companies are suddenly
all in on the Democratic side, whether they like it or not,”
says Bremmer. “I can’t remember a time when the most
important companies in the U.S. economy were going to be
in such a partisan battle with one political party.” It may not
be Normal, but it’s definitely New.
THEY’RE BIGGER;WE’RE BITTER
ONCE A SOURCE OF PRIDE, THE ROARING GROWTH OF
TECH’S “BIG FIVE” HAS BECOME FOR SOME A SYMBOL OF
ECONOMIC INEQUITIES AND AN UN-LEVEL PLAYING FIELD.