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On Feb. 1, MyanMar’s Military
arrested leaders of the country’s
civilian-led government and
declared a one-year state of
emergency. After a decade-
long experiment with limited
direct democracy, the junta is
firmly in charge, and a nation
that once seemed to offer a road
map for transition out of armed
dictatorship is now once again
under lockdown.
This is an ugly story of fragile
democracy and brute force, but
it is not a simple morality play.
Aung San Suu Kyi is a compli-
cated figure. The sacrifice of her
freedom and the force of her per-
sonality made the 2011 power-
sharing deal possible. But when
the army murdered members of
the mostly Muslim
Rohingya minority
in 2017 and drove
750,000 more from
the country, Aung San
Suu Kyi publicly de-
fended the country.
Will international
pressure reverse this
coup? No. The Biden
Administration, facing its first
spontaneous foreign-policy test,
will surely threaten, then impose,
further sanctions. The Obama
Administration worked hard to
encourage Myanmar’s tentative
steps toward democracy. The
U.S. eased previous sanctions, to
bolster Aung San Suu Kyi at the
military’s expense, and President
Obama visited Myanmar in 2012.
But the Obama Administration
largely ignored warnings from
rights groups that a full lifting of
sanctions should wait for better
treatment of the Rohingya and
other minorities.
U.S. and European financial
penalties and restrictions on
exports of military equipment
to Myanmar in response to theethnic cleansing of the Rohingya
have accomplished little. Contin-
ued military control of lucrative
state properties ensures the gen-
erals will prosper even as their
country buckles.Nor will it be lost on anyone
in the Biden Administration that
this is an especially awkward mo-
ment for the U.S. to defend de-
mocracy from attempts to seize
power by those who claim elec-
tion fraud. Myanmar’s neighbors
will do nothing to further iso-
late the country. Japan and the
Southeast Asian democracies will
mind their own business. Thai-
land, where the military remains
in power after a successful coup
in 2014, will be only too happy to
continue trade with
Myanmar.
The winner is
China, which will now
become an ever more
important source
of financial help as
Western sanctions
take a toll. As part
of Beijing’s Belt and
Road infrastructure investment
project, the two countries
have already signed deals for
construction of a China- Myanmar
Economic Corridor, a project that
will boost commerce for Myanmar
while giving China land access via
highway and rail to a strategically
valuable deep-water Indian Ocean
port on Myanmar’s west coast.
When Myanmar’s generals
made their democracy deal a
decade ago, they hoped to open
the country to both Western and
Chinese investment. Now that
they’ve clawed back full power,
they’ll depend almost exclusively
on China. Beijing is happy to do
business with anyone in power in
Myanmar, but the Western retreat
will be welcome news. •Beijing is
happy to
do business
with anyone
in power in
MyanmarTHE RISK REPORT
How China stands to gain
from the coup in Myanmar
By Ian Bremmershe would be “one of the most power-
ful people in the country,” says Mark
Farmaner, director of human rights ad-
vocacy group Burma Campaign U.K.
Yet ongoing COVID-19 restrictions
make mass protests unlikely, and fear
of reprisal is well justified; thousands
were arrested and as many as 200 killed
during 2007 demonstrations, according
to advocacy groups. “There isn’t really
[any protest going on here],” says Ye Yint
Thu, a university student who lives on
the Thai border. “I want to participate,
but if I do it alone, I might be arrested.”
There are also signs that a return to
military rule has been a dose of reality
for those hoping for democracy. Youth
activist Thinzar Shunlei Yi says he and
others are tired of the “personality cult”
of Suu Kyi. “We want a real democracy
led by real people.” Kyaw Kyaw, the
LGBTQ-rights campaigner, adds that
Suu Kyi’s latest imprisonment has been
a wake-up call: “A lesson learned is we
should not depend on a person. We
should depend on a political structure.”
—With reporting by eMily Fishbein/
FalMOuth, Mass., Kyaw hsan
hlaing/yangOn and suyin haynes/
lOndOn •
Readying posters of
military chief Min
Aung Hlaing for a
demonstration against
the military coup on
Feb. 1 in Tokyo