Barron's - USA (2021-02-08)

M38 BARRON’S February 8, 2021

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 0.25 0.25 2.25

PrimeRate(base) 3.25 3.25 4.75

FedFundsRate
Avg effective offer 0.08 0.08 1.60
Avg weekly auction-c 0.08 0.09 1.57

T-BillsRate
13 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.066 0.081 1.582
13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.065 0.080 1.550
26 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.071 0.086 1.557
26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.070 0.085 1.520
Avg weekly auction-c 0.07 0.09 1.53

BrokerCallRate 2.00 2.00 3.50

BankersAcceptances
1 month 0.12 0.12 1.60
2 months 0.15 0.15 1.63
3 months 0.18 0.18 1.70
6 months 0.20 0.20 1.75

EuroLiborRate
1 month -0.579 -0.579 -0.512
3 months -0.554 -0.543 -0.423
6 months -0.539 -0.537 -0.393
12 months -0.503 -0.504 -0.302

LiborInterbankRate
1 month 0.12 0.12 1.67
3 months 0.19 0.20 1.73
6 months 0.21 0.22 1.74
12 months 0.30 0.31 1.83

ForeignPrimeRates
Canada 2.45 2.45 3.95
Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00
Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475
Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.50
Britain 0.10 0.10 0.75

OtherMoneyRates
Fannie Mae Home Loan:
30-Year Fixed Conv 2.02 1.97 2.95
Bank money market-z 0.08 0.08 0.21
Interest Checking-z 0.04 0.04 0.07
6-Month Certif-z 0.14 0.14 0.50
12-Month Certif-z 0.20 0.20 0.77
30 Month Accounts-z 0.21 0.22 0.80
5-Year Certificates-z 0.34 0.35 1.13
U.S. Savings EE Bonds:
Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby
theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.10

0.95

0.80

0.65

0.50

0.35

4.90

4.00

3.10

2.20

1.30

0.40

S&P 100 CBOE

F M A M J J A S O N D J

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100s

sCBOE

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedFeb3:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 6,840,913 -15,636 +3,035,440

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... ....

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 1,843 -186 + 1,838

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit .... .... ....

Float -417 -263 -73

OtherF.R.Assets 40,676 + 394 + 11,473

TotalFedCredit# 7,366,834 -18,020 +3,246,895

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,564 + 14 + 457

Total 7,455,652 -18,137 +3,248,744

Currencyincirc 2,097,478 + 334 + 304,892

Treas.CashHldgs 49 + 6 -170

Treas.FedDeposits 1,625,325 -8,215 +1,212,003

ForeignFedDeposits 21,849 -108 + 16,667

OtherFedDeposits 192,988 -56,074 + 130,718

OtherFRliab/cap 49,477 -397 + 5,709

Totalfactors 4,262,534 -48,247 +1,700,642

ReservesF.R.banks 3,193,118 + 30,110 +1,548,102

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,531,293 -1,639 + 104,948

ReserveAggr(Mil.$) Latest Prev.Month% Year

MonthEnded December: Month Month Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 3,135,000 3,034,700 3.31 1,698,300

Nonborrowed Res 3,076,300 2,968,100 3.65 1,698,300

Borrowed Reserves 58,685 66,598 -11.88 21

MonetaryBase 5,206,600 5,093,100 2.23 3,426,500

SouthKorea(Won) .0008946 .0008941 1117.76 1118.48

SriLanka(Rupee) .0052 .0052 193.5100 190.5200

Sweden(Krona) .1194 .1196 8.3722 8.3592

Switzerland(Franc) 1.1125 1.1228 .8989 .8906

Taiwan(Dollar) .03573 .03569 27.989 28.016

Thailand(Baht) .03333 .03348 30.000 29.870

Turkey(New Lira)-d .1418 .1367 7.0538 7.3149

Ukraine(Hryvnia) .0360 .0355 27.7500 28.1500

U.K.(Pound) 1.3735 1.3710 .7281 .7294

Uruguay(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02345 .02363 42.635 42.325

----

Euro 1.2049 1.2138 .8299 .8239

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Friday,February05,2021

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina(Peso)-y .0114 .0115 87.9275 87.2964

Australia(Dollar) .7678 .7642 1.3024 1.3086

Bahrain(Dinar) 2.6535 2.6524 .3769 .3770

Brazil(Real) .1862 .1830 5.3707 5.4630

Bulgaria(Lev) .6156 .6204 1.6243 1.6118

Canada(Dollar) .7837 .7827 1.2759 1.2776

Chile(Peso) .001353 .001361 739.00 734.80

China(Renminbi) .1546 .1556 6.4667 6.4277

Colombia(Peso) .0002813 .0002802 3555.50 3569.01

Croatia(Kuna) .1593575 .1603746 6.28 6.24

Czech.Rep.(Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .04672 .04662 21.404 21.450

Denmark(Krone) .1620 .1632 6.1714 6.1289

EcuadorUSDollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt(Pound)-y .0637 .0636 15.6905 15.7149

HongKong(Dollar) .1290 .1290 7.7527 7.7531

Hungary(Forint) .003378 .003395 296.05 294.51

Iceland(Krona) .007778 .007775 128.56 128.61

India(Rupee) .01374 .01371 72.788 72.916

Indonesia(Rupiah) .0000713 .0000713 14030 14030

Israel(Shekel) .3041 .3049 3.2887 3.2799

Japan(Yen) .009490 .009552 105.38 104.68

Kazakhstan(Tenge) .002378 .002362 420.50 423.42

Kuwait(Dinar) 3.3012 3.3027 .3029 .3028

Macau(Pataca) .1252 .1251 7.9900 7.9915

Malaysia(Ringgit)-b .2457 .2474 4.0705 4.0425

Mexico(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0498 .0486 20.0912 20.5919

NewZealand(Dollar) .7203 .7191 1.3883 1.3906

Norway(Krone) .1173 .1168 8.5274 8.5595

Oman(Rial) 2.5976 2.5974 .3850 .3850

Pakistan(Rupee) .00624 .00624 160.250 160.283

Philippines(Peso) .02078 .02081 48.115 48.056

Poland(Zloty) .2687 .2684 3.7211 3.7260

Qatar(Rial) .2746 .2746 3.6418 3.6421

Russia(Ruble)-a .01340 .01317 74.649 75.955

SaudiArabia(Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7510 3.7508

Singapore(Dollar) .7493 .7529 1.3345 1.3282

SouthAfrica(Rand) .0674 .0659 14.8371 15.1774

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 2/5 1/29 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1802.95 1863.80 1572.65

Silver,troyounce 26.96 27.17 17.70

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1886.04 72.54 4.00

MapleLeaf 1904.18 90.68 5.00

MexicanPeso 2194.54 8.00 0.37

AustriaCrown 1780.59 3.00 0.17

AustriaPhil 1904.18 90.68 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1904.18 90.68 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice1813.50

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 2/4 1/28 Ago Chg.

1019.26391.56 Gold mining 931.69 914.67589.93 +1.86

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus BullishSentiment 70% 71% 70%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 37.4% 37.7% 42.5%

Bearish 35.6 38.3 34.5

Neutral 27.1 24.0 23.0

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 51% 53% 52%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 44.5% 44.0% 49.0%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 36,638 r19,762 26,291

Municipal (z) 4,729 r7,743 8,638

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

1.42 1.36 2.35

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

2.68 2.67 3.31

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

53.0 51.1 71.0

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4436.44 4550.56 4260.42

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3334.43 3351.20 3150.85

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

322.24 325.28 306.09

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.21 2.14 2.53

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.41 3.43 3.53

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

+.48 +.61 –.16

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 2.08 2.04 2.62

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedJanuary25

M1(seas.adjusted) 6,903.0r6,749.93,967.7 73.98

M1(notadjusted) 6,990.0r6,617.64,065.1 71.95

M2(seas.adjusted) 19,514.3r19,567.115,494.7 25.94

M2(notadjusted) 19,424.9r19,542.615,351.3 26.54

MonthendedDecember

M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) 1.290 1.177 1.182 9.14

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedDecember

M1(seas.adjusted) 6,621.3r6,047.73,978.3 66.44

M2(seas.adjusted) 19,188.3r19,086.115,318.4 25.26

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

M A M J J A S O N D J

Barron's Gold Mining Index (931.69)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Too Solid:Traders preferred silver and

risky stocks with no earnings. Gold fell

3.3% on the week, to $1,803 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 2/1 2/2 2/3 2/4 2/5

NYSE .86 2.59 .54 1.49 .98

NYSEAmerican .14 2.54 .78 .74 .35

Nasdaq .74 2.02 .44 1.57 1.19