12 Leaders The EconomistFebruary 6th 2021
I
n the yearsbeforecovid-19sub-SaharanAfricanswerenot
only the world’s youngest people, with a median age of less
than 20, they were also some of the most optimistic. Just 12% of
Japanese told pollsters they thought their lives would improve
over the following 15 years, compared with 78% of Kenyans. Ni-
gerians and Senegalese were even more upbeat.
The pandemic has made it harder to be sunny. When covid-
first struck, a lot of pundits thought Africans might be spared the
worst, because so many are young or work on the land (and
would thus be little affected by lockdowns). Yet it now looks as if
the virus will leave more lasting scars in Africa than elsewhere.
Whereas rich countries can hope for a rapid economic rebound
as they vaccinate their people, Africa is years away from jabbing
enough to achieve general immunity. The imfpredicts it will be
the slowest-growing large region this year. Repeated waves of in-
fection will also disrupt the schooling of millions, putting at risk
the educational and demographic trends that are among Africa’s
best reasons to be hopeful.
Optimism about Africa began before the pandemic, with a
long commodities boom in the years to 2014, which fuelled rapid
economic growth. The share of Africans who were extremely
poor declined from 56% in 2003 to 40% in 2018. And many more
children started attending school. In Ethiopia, for instance, al-
most all children were enrolled in primary
school by the time of the pandemic, up from
65% in 2003. Better-educated children earn
more as adults. If female, they also go on to have
smaller families and devote more effort to edu-
cating each child. Africa’s demographic transi-
tion promised future prosperity.
When the first wave of covid-19 hit, Africa
seemed to weather it well. Sub-Saharan gdpfell
by 2.6% in 2020, compared with 3.5% for the world. Of the 24
countries that posted any growth at all, 11 were in sub-Saharan
Africa. Its official covid-19 statistics look good, too: with 14% of
the global population, it has about 3% of recorded cases and
deaths. Alas, those statistics are surely misleading. Few African
countries have tested enough to have any real sense of how many
cases they have suffered. And few record more than a fraction of
deaths. If South Africa, which tests a lot, is any guide, cases and
deaths in the rest of Africa are much higher than reported.
The greatest harm is likely to come not from the immediate
impact of the pandemic, but rather from its lingering effects on
economies, households and societies (see Middle East & Africa
section). Start with Africa’s economies. Before the pandemic,
growth was already slowing. Because the region’s population is
growing by 2.7% a year, about twice the pace of Asia’s, Africa
needs at least as much economic expansion merely to stand still.
Yet gdphas lagged behind population growth since 2016.
What is more, governments entered the crisis with strained
balance-sheets. By the end of 2019, public debt was 62% of gdp;
in 2020 it rose to 70%. Rich countries can borrow cheaply and
pay citizens to stay at home: on average they have spent more
than 7% of gdpcushioning the shock of covid-19. African gov-
ernments have spent only 3% of gdp, and even that was a burden.Fully 46 introducedsocial-welfaregrants,but they did not stop
32m people falling into extreme poverty. To avoid debt crises,
many African governments may curtail spending on infrastruc-
ture, too. This will stymie growth. Without better ports, roads
and power supplies, Africa will reap fewer benefits from a conti-
nental free-trade deal that came into effect last month.
Africa is at the back of the queue for vaccines, alas. The Econo-
mist Intelligence Unit, our sister organisation, predicts the re-
gion will struggle to obtain enough doses to reach herd immuni-
ty before 2024. As much of the rest of the world gets back to work,
travel and play, Africa could find that covid-19 is, in effect, en-
demic. The travellers and tourists who help generate almost 9%
of gdpwill stay away. Lockdowns and curfews will choke mar-
kets and bars. Most worrying, schools could close again.
Sub-Saharan classrooms have been fully or partly shut for 23
weeks, above the global average. Since half of Africans are with-
out electricity, never mind laptops and Wi-Fi, remote learning is
tricky. Modelling by the World Bank suggests that the classes al-
ready forgone will cost close to $500bn in future earnings, or al-
most $7,000 per child. This is a huge sum in a part of the world
where the average gdpper person is less than $1,600 a year.
To make matters worse, many children—mostly girls—will
never go back to their books. Many will become child labourers
or brides. In one coastal area of Kenya, for exam-
ple, only 388 of the 946 schoolgirls who got preg-
nant during the school shutdown last year have
resumed their studies. It is too soon to know
how many girls will stay away for good, but if
large numbers do, Africa’s demographic transi-
tion may be at risk. In general those with no
schooling go on to have six or more children
each. This falls to about four for women who fin-
ish primary school and two for secondary school.
Two things need to happen urgently to mitigate Africa’s co-
vid-induced calamity. First, people must be vaccinated more
quickly than on current plans. Many African governments, wary
of the cost, have been slow to order vaccines. Yet the returns to
spending on vaccination are likely to be far higher than on just
about anything else. The approval of new vaccines promises to
help ease global shortages. Rich countries, which have ordered
more than they need, should donate excess stocks and money to
covax, the global programme for pooling the purchase and allo-
cation of vaccines.When the jabbing is done
Even if vaccines come soon, African treasuries will still need
help to avoid drawn-out debt crises and growth-choking cuts to
spending. Lenders such as the World Bank and imfshould offer
more cheap loans, and support proposals by the African Devel-
opment Bank and others to woo more private capital.
Africa’s cries for help—whether in the form of jabs or loans—
risk being lost amid the tumult of a truly global crisis. But the fra-
gility of African economies and societies is a reason to act swift-
ly. It is also in outsiders’ interest to help. So long as the virus is
rampant somewhere, it can mutate and spread anywhere. 7Africa’s long covid
The pandemic threatens to undercut the poorest continent’s precarious progressDisease and development