20 United States The EconomistFebruary 6th 2021
21states is higher than the national average.
It is still too early to issue a post-mor-
tem on why this is. But there are several fac-
tors that may help explain the states’ differ-
ent experiences. First is the role of more
infectious mutations. Anne Rimoin, a pro-
fessor of epidemiology at uclaSchool of
Public Health, describes variants as “the
big x-factor”. She thinks a variant may be
one cause of the spike southern California
saw in cases this winter, but it is too early to
say so conclusively, because so little geno-
mic sequencing and surveillance have
been done. “As has been shown from the re-
cent surge in California, the virus often
wins, no matter what you try to do as a gov-
ernment,” says Larry Levitt of the Kaiser
Family Foundation.Lone Stars and lockdowns
A second factor is the length of lockdowns
people can tolerate before the policy be-
comes counterproductive. Most public-
health experts believe that Texas was too
quick to come out of its lockdown and paid
the price with thousands of lives. Yet Cali-
fornia has shown the limitations of long-
lasting, intermittent lockdowns. The Gold-
en State’s most recent ban on outdoor din-
ing in the winter may have simply pushed
private gatherings indoors, causing the vi-
rus to spread. Jay Bhattacharya, a professor
of medicine at Stanford University, calls
lockdowns “trickle-down epidemiology
policy”, because they gave an advantage to
the wealthy who could work from home,whereas poorer Californians had to go
work, thereby running the risk of bringing
the virus back to their families. That is a
strange outcome for America’s most pro-
gressive state.
Even Mr Newsom got pandemic fatigue,
dining indoors at the French Laundry, one
of the country’s most expensive restau-
rants, with acquaintances in November
after urging Californians to practise social
distancing. Disapproval of his action has
been mounting, and he is facing a recall
campaign, which if it gathers enough sig-
natures, will go on the ballot and could re-
move him from office. His Texan counter-
part has also seen his approval ratings
drop, but is not facing a political crisis.
A third factor explaining the pandem-
ic’s toll in these two states is access to
health care. Texas chose not to expand
health-care coverage under the Affordable
Care Act. Its share of uninsured adults and
children (18%) is the highest in the country
and twice the national average (in Califor-
nia, the figure is 8%). Lack of health care is
probably one reason why Texan deaths per
capita have been higher, although its in-
habitants are more spread out. “Because
there’s such a limited safety-net, you’re
seeing people seek help and not getting it,
but some people aren’t seeking help at all,”
says Lina Hidalgo, county judge of Harris
County in Texas. “Incredibly high numbers
of people are dying at home.”
The pandemic has laid bare the short-
comings of both states. Texas has always
been run lean, with few benefits for those
who fall on hard times. California makes a
point of offering more help to the needy,
yet has been unable to deliver on its prom-
ises. The state’s inability to reopen public
schools—which would require breaking
with powerful teachers’ unions—has sad-
dled the state’s neediest families with extra
burdens. The administration of unemploy-
ment benefits in California has also been a
disaster, resulting in delayed cheques to
the needy and improperly paid ones to
fraudsters, including some in jail. A state
audit says the fraudulent claims could
amount to as much as $30bn, or $20,
for every unemployed Californian.
Getting their residents vaccinated will
be the next test. The states that are cur-
rently doing best on that score, such as
West Virginia, tend to be smaller. Texas’s
roll-out was initially faster. It was early to
expand vaccine eligibility beyond health-
care workers to all those over 65, which
helped speed up the roll-out. But a lack of a
centralised booking system has led to
many double bookings for shots. At one
vaccination site in Dallas that your corre-
spondent visited, 500 people are being vac-
cinated a day, but there are 100 no-shows,
many of whom are suspected of booking
elsewhere and forgetting to cancel. By con-
trast, California focused first on health-care workers and then those over 75. After a
slow and chaotic start, California has
picked up pace. In the past week California
administered around 4 jabs per 1,000 peo-
ple each day, compared with 2.8 in Texas.
Those Californians and Texans who
hope the federal government may step in
and fix glitches with vaccinations seem
likely to be disappointed. “We thought they
were going to bring in the army and the Na-
tional Guard. Now we realise it was left en-
tirely left to the states, but it doesn’t look
like the states understood the complexity
of what was involved,” says Peter Hotez of
Baylor College of Medicine. Having mud-
dled through the past year with opposite
policies and quite similar results, Ameri-
ca’s two biggest states must once more find
their way back to normality themselves. 7No right answer
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California
lockdownTX
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hildren are vanishing from public
schools. New York City has lost 30,
pupils this school year compared with the
previous one, a 3% decline. Los Angeles
Unified’s roster decreased by 19,233 (4%),
and Boston’s by 5% (2,368 pupils). For a
variety of reasons, children from pre-kin-
dergarten to high school are disappearing
from the rolls.
How worrying is this? Analyses are lim-
ited, but a deep dive into preliminary data
from Massachusetts’ public schools by
Thomas Dee of Stanford University and
Mark Murphy of the University of Hawaii at
Manoa shows that most traditional public
districts in the state—274 out of 289—had
enrolment declines this year in compari-
son with last year. Massachusetts experi-
enced a 4% statewide loss in this academic
year (37,363 pupils) compared with the year
before. Not all districts lost pupils, how-
ever; charter, vocational and virtual (com-
pletely online) districts saw increases. Two
virtual districts gained 611 pupils, a 21% in-
crease over the past year, and charter dis-
tricts gained 1,277 pupils, a 3% increase
over 78 districts.
Some of the decline is no cause for con-
cern. A portion of Massachusetts public-
school pupils are probably attending class-
es out of state, while others are leaving for
charter schools, private schools or home-
schooling. Some families may also leave
districts to move to second homes, ex-
plains Mr Dee. He found that some holiday
spots like Martha’s Vineyard and Province-
town grew by 2-3%.BOSTON
A large number of pupils have gone
missing during the epidemicSchool enrolmentVanishing act