The Economist - USA (2021-02-06)

The EconomistFebruary 6th 2021 Europe 43

W

hentheGoteborgFilmFestival

offeredthechancefora filmfanto

spendsevendaysaloneonanisland,

withonly 60 filmsforcompany,the

organisersweren’tsureif anyonewould

wanttoapply.Thepandemichasbeen

isolatingenough,evenforSwedes,who

haveyettolockdownlikeotherEuro-

peans.Theluckywinnerwouldnotbe

abletobringa phoneorcontactfriends

andfamilyduringa weekofstormyseas

anddarkSwedishwinter.Noonewas

expectingthatthefestivalwouldgetover

12,000applicationsfrom 45 countries.

Thechosencastaway,a pink-haired

SwedishnursecalledLisaEnroth,has

beenonHamneskarisland,37kmnorth-

westofGothenburg(asit isspeltinEng-

lish),sinceJanuary31st.Sendingherby

boattoan“isolatedcinema”wasthebest

waytocarryonthefestivalthisyear,says

itschieforganiser,MirjaWester.A single

personwatchingfilmscannotspreadthe

virus(unlikethe160,000atlastyear’s

event).Thesolitaryexperienceisalsoin

keepingwithhowmillionshavewatched

moviesoflate.Andlikethelighthouse

thattowersovertheisland,streamedand

downloadedfilmsshinea rayofhope.

Still,somefilmsarenotmeanttobe

watchedalone.Bydaythree,MsEnroth

wasalreadyrueingherlackoffriends

andwine.“Ishouldhavehadsomeone

theretoclingonto,”shesaidina video

diaryafterwatching“TheMacaluso

Sisters”,a tragicItaliandrama.Shecon-

fessedtohaving“startedtalkingtothe

stove”.It iseasytounderstandhowshe

feels,aloneona rockyoutpost.Yetsuch

sentimentshavelongbeencommonall

overSweden.HalfofSwedishhouse-

holdsaresingle-personones.

Whenlighthouse-keepersfirstcame

toHamneskar,noonethoughtthey

couldsurvivelonginsuchdesolation.

MsEnroth’sprospectsarerosier.A psy-

chiatristisonstandbyincaseshestarts

tostruggle.Andforanemergencynurse

whoseenergyhasbeendrainedbythe

pandemic,solitudemayevenbea relief.

Solitarycinema

Sweden

ASwedishfilmfestivalhasjustoneattendee

I

n the chillwaters off Bornholm, a Dan-

ish island in the Baltic sea, a complex

game of cat-and-mouse is playing out. A

flotilla of Russian boats is rushing to com-

plete the construction of Nord Stream 2, a

1,230km (765-mile) gas pipeline that would

double capacity from Russia to Germany.

Less than 150km of it remains to be built.

Meanwhile, the American government,

armed with sanctions legislation, is pick-

ing off companies it suspects of involve-

ment. As the saga enters its endgame, the

pipeline’s fate may depend on the outcome

of this race.

Nord Stream 2 has inspired criticism

ever since 2015, when Gazprom, Russia’s

state-backed gas giant, and five European

energy firms formed a consortium to lay a

new pipeline costing €9.5bn ($11bn) next to

an existing one along the Baltic seabed.

American opposition, grounded in con-

cerns that the new pipe will expand the

Kremlin’s influence, is bipartisan. Eastern

Europeans, as well as France, fear growing

dependence on Russian energy—and de-

priving Ukraine, from which Russia has

gobbled territory, of transit fees from an ex-

isting land pipeline. Attitudes in Brussels

range from concern to bitter opposition.

Germans who value these opinions

wonder why their politicians insist on

ploughing ahead in splendid isolation. Yet

Angela Merkel’s government has long

sought to insulate the pipeline from dip-

lomatic rows. Challenged after the recent

detention in Moscow of Alexei Navalny, a

Russian dissident, Mrs Merkel said she had

not changed her mind on the pipeline. To

circumvent American sanctions, the gov-

ernment of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania,

a rural German state where the pipeline

makes landfall, has set up a foundation,

funded mainly by Gazprom, to mediate be-

tween Nord Stream 2 and private contrac-

tors—in the name, risibly, of “climate pro-

tection”. (Genuine greens are appalled.)

Yet not only does that ploy look

doomed, America’s dogged efforts to kill

the pipe are bearing fruit. Congress has

passed two sets of sanctions aimed at it. In

December 2019 the mere threat forced All-

seas, a Swiss undersea construction firm,

to pull its vessels from the project, halting

construction for a year and costing Gaz-

prom a fortune. Many other international

companies have been scared off.

Russian ships eventually restarted

work in December. But the heat continues

torise.OnJanuary19th theAmericangov-

ernment made good on its threats for the

first time, slapping sanctions on Fortuna, a

Russian vessel repurposed for pipe-laying.

A few weeks earlier Congress passed an

amendment to a different sanctions law,

passed in 2019. By radically expanding the

set of companies now exposed to American

action to include insurers, certifiers and

any entity supporting “pipe-laying activi-

ties”, the new law is a “game-changer”, says

Mateusz Kubiak of Esperis, a Polish consul-

tancy. Russian assets may eventually be

able to finish the pipe-laying, he says. But

certification, a technical exercise to show

the pipeline meets international safety and

design standards, “cannot be simply trans-

ferred to some murky Russian company.”

What now? The aggressive sanctions

policy of the Trump administration unset-

tled even stalwart foes of Nord Stream 2 in

Europe. Joe Biden is keen to rebuild Ameri-

ca’s tattered alliances, but his team also op-

poses the pipeline. Optimists think the

most recent sanctions legislation could of-

fer a way out. The sanctions are mandatory,

limiting the White House’s room for

manoeuvre. But as Dan Fried, a sanctions

co-ordinator at the State Department in the

Obama administration, notes, the text also

lowers the bar for the president to waive

the sanctions. “It’s a hint that Congress

wants a deal,” he says. Mr Biden’s team has

indicated that it is open to suggestions.

What might a deal look like? One idea is

an automatic mechanism to impose sanc-

tions on Gazprom should the Kremlin re-

nege on a deal brokered by Mrs Merkel in

2019 to keep gas flowing across Ukraine.

This could form part of a grand bargain in

which America drops its sanctions in ex-

change for German commitments to bol-

ster energy- and other forms of security in

eastern Europe. But Germany would need

not only to signal interest in such ideas, but

to pause support for the pipe. And officials

in Berlin fear hardliners in Congress may

tie Mr Biden’s hands. The diplomatic stale-

mate, then, may drag on. Meanwhile, the

delicate dance in the Baltic continues. 7

BERLIN

Germany won’t kill Nord Stream 2.

Americans sanctions might

Nord Stream 2

Running out of

gas?

POLAND

Bornholm

GERMANY

Mecklenburg

West-Pomerania

UKRAINE

Moscow

BELARUS

SWEDEN

Baltic

Sea

NORWAY FINLAND

StPetersburg

DENMARK

ESTONIA

LATVIA

LITH.

A

RUSSIA

(Under

construction)

Gas-pipeline routes

Nord Stream

Nord Stream 2

Selected others

500 km