The EconomistFebruary 6th 2021 Britain 47P
olitical capitalis a prime minister’s most precious resource:
the magic substance that mobilises supporters, marginalises
opponents and turns vague dreams into legislative triumphs. It is
also the most ephemeral, here today and gone tomorrow. Having
accumulated a lot in the last general election, Boris Johnson saw it
disappear a year ago as he floundered in the face of covid-19. There
was talk of him being “gone by Christmas”.
Now the Bank of Boris is in surplus again. The vaccine pro-
gramme’s success has blunted the accusation that he’s an incom-
petent blunderer. With 14% of the population vaccinated, well
ahead of Germany (2.4%) and France (2.3%), Britain has done bet-
ter than any other big country. The eu, with its bungled vaccine na-
tionalism, is doing its utmost to prove that the Eurosceptics were
right all along. An opinion poll published on January 31st put the
Tories three points ahead of Labour; one on February 1st showed
that only 36% of Britons have a favourable view of the eucompared
with 50% who have an unfavourable one. And Mr Johnson seems
to be maturing as a politician: his tone is more statesmanlike and
Downing Street more professional.
If Mr Johnson is wise, he will spend his political capital swiftly
rather than trying to hoard it, for it may well evaporate. With the
official covid-19 death toll having passed 100,000, Britain has one
of the highest mortality rates in the world from the disease. Brexit
is gumming up trade; the Manchester Chamber of Commerce re-
ports that it is hitting the business of over a quarter of companies
in the region. Northern Ireland is in crisis over the constitutional
arrangements for the province.
But where exactly should Mr Johnson spend it? The two most
obvious answers are making good on his promise to “level up” the
country and preventing the break-up of the United Kingdom. But
“levelling up” is at best the work of a generation and potentially a
labour of Sisyphus: whatever can be done to push the boulder up-
hill will be undone by the incline of the British economy to the
south-east. The best way to prevent Scotland from seeking inde-
pendence is to prove that Britain is working so well that leaving it
would be idiotic.
In spending his political capital—and the nation’s cash—Mr
Johnson should prioritise three more concrete policies. The first isfixingsocialcare,which has long been the third rail of British poli-
tics. A poorly thought-out plan to fix it, quickly dubbed the “de-
mentia tax”, lost Theresa May her majority in the 2017 election. But
now the cost of doing nothing exceeds the cost of doing some-
thing: even before more than 25,000 care-home residents died
with covid-19 last year, the system was visibly rotting, with over-
crowded facilities and mounting staff shortages.
Mr Johnson has frequently promised to provide a lasting settle-
ment for the sector. He should now fulfil his pledge in the name of
building a national memorial for the victims of the pandemic. The
simplest way to reform the system is to preserve the principle at
the heart of the nhsthat care should be largely free at the point of
delivery: cap personal contributions at, say, £50,000 ($68,000)
and then pay for the rest out of general taxation, even if this means
raising taxes. According to Policy Exchange, a think-tank, fully
funding long-term social care would cost 0.5% of gdp—not a mas-
sive sum for so pressing a need.
The other end of the age spectrum, the young whose education
has been sacrificed to protect their elders, also needs attention.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think-tank, estimates that school
closures will cost the average pupil £40,000 in lost wages over
their lifetime. The notion of average is misleading. Poor children
who lack the ready internet access and quiet space needed for
home study feel the consequences more than richer ones. The gov-
ernment needs to make sure that they have the chance to make up
for lost time by, for example, establishing summer schools,
lengthening the school day, extending the school year, offering en-
riched classes and allowing some children to repeat whole years.
Along with this domestic agenda, Mr Johnson needs a foreign-
policy triumph. What better than for the man who brought Britain
Brexit to preside over a new rapprochement with the eu? The euis
not about to autocombust, whatever the more excitable Euro-
sceptics may think, and can make Britain’s life difficult. Its current
embarrassment should calm fears that any warming of the rela-
tionship is a prelude to rejoining, and thus give Mr Johnson room
for manoeuvre.
It is time he rejected the dogmatic Brexiteer belief that Britain
should deal primarily with nation-states, particularly France and
Germany, rather than international abstractions. He should ex-
plore ways of working with the eu, particularly on foreign and se-
curity policy. Britain broadly agrees with the euon big challenges
such as Iran and climate change. It also has more to gain than to
lose by co-operating with it on cross-border crime even if that in-
volves the notional recognition of the European Court of Justice.
Granting full diplomatic status to the European ambassador, João
Vale de Almeida, would be a good way to start a rapprochement.A good man after a crisis
Mr Johnson famously regards Winston Churchill as his model. But
when it comes to spending political capital the best model may be
Churchill’s friend and rival, Clement Attlee, the subject of a fine
biography, “Citizen Clem”, by John Bew, a member of Number 10’s
policy unit. Attlee reignited the nation’s spirit after the dark days
of the war by passing the 1946 National Health Service Act, which
provided free health care for all, and nurturing the 1944 Education
Act, which created a more meritocratic society. He also laid the
foundations of post-war foreign policy by forging a deep alliance
with the United States despite the virulent anti-Americanism of
many of his own mps. The spirit of the late 1940s may be just what
Britain needs in the early 2020s. 7Bagehot Riding high
Boris Johnson is suddenly flush with political capital. Here’s how he should spend it