The Economist - USA (2021-01-30)

20 United States The EconomistJanuary 30th 2021

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accompanied by cost-benefits analyses,

which can span hundreds of pages of eco-

nomic and epidemiological modelling, to

justify them. Courts scrutinise these ad-

ministrative actions and costings when

new rules are challenged—as they often

are. Improper accounting or shoddy adher-

ence to the apaare easy ways to get them

thrown out in court, which requires the en-

tire process to restart from scratch. Litiga-

tion can stretch for years. But once a rule

survives judicial scrutiny, undoing or re-

vising it later requires another go-around.

It will help Mr Biden that the Trump ad-

ministration was not very adept at admin-

istrative law. A tracker by the Institute for

Policy Integrity, a think-tank housed at

New York University (nyu) law school,

found that 80% of lawsuits against the

Trump administration’s regulatory

changes were successful. Under a typical

administration, that number is only 30%.

Many of the failures in court were due to

basic errors like not adhering to the apa’s

mandatory periods for public comment, or

failing to provide reasonable justifications

for new rules. Attempts to deregulate still

stuck in litigation at the time of the transi-

tion, like the previous administration’s ef-

fort to weaken exhaust-pipe emissions

standards on cars, can be jettisoned with-

out another lengthy rule making process.

With a second term, Mr Trump might have

waited out some of these legal challenges

and seen his changes to regulation become

more entrenched. Yet “because Trump was

a one-term president, his whole regulatory

output is very shaky, and little of it will sur-

vive,” says Richard Revesz of nyu.

Executive action is useful not just for

wiping away the last man’s legacy but also

for sketching your own. Mr Biden will not

be content to simply revert to Obama-era

rules circa 2016. For one, he has empha-

sised racial equity much more in his first

executive orders than America’s first black

president did (a sign of how the party’s base

has migrated on these issues). Mr Biden’s

economic actions may be a bit to the left as

well: he ordered the minimum wage for

federal contractors to be raised to $15 an

hour compared with the $10.10 rate that Mr

Obama ordered six years into his presiden-

cy in 2014. On environmental rules, Mr Bi-

den will probably push for ambitious regu-

lation of methane emissions and

fuel-efficiency standards for cars, says Paul

Bledsoe, a former climate adviser to Bill

Clinton. Given that businesses have re-

vised their stance on climate change since

the Obama days, there is likely to be less re-

sistance even to a stricter regime.

The process of de-Trumpification may

instilsomelessonsonthelimitsofrelying

ontransientexecutiveactionalone.Early

effortsatmitigatingthespreadofcovid-

anditseconomicfalloutbyexecutiveor-

der—likeincreasingnutritionassistance

forpoor families by15%, or mandating

companiestomanufacturepersonalpro-

tective equipment—can do some good.

Moreimportant,notesHeatherBoushey,a

memberofthepresident’sCouncilofEco-

nomicAdvisers,willbethepitchMrBiden

hasmadeto Congress:enhanced unem-

ployment benefits, another round of

chequesandpaidemergencyleave.A simi-

lardelicatebalancebetweenunilateralex-

ecutiveactionandmoredurable legisla-

tion will need to be struck on other

priorities, chief among them climate

change,ifBidenismistoproveanymore

lastingthanTrumpism. 7

T

he bidenadministration has pledged

to deliver 150m covid-19 vaccinations

within the president’s first 100 days in of-

fice, but who should get those shots? Most

states are prioritising frontline health-care

workers and long-term care-home resi-

dents, followed by people aged 75 or older

and essential workers. Few states are mak-

ing sure African-Americans or Hispanics

get vaccinated, even though they are three

times more likely to die from the virus than

whites. In fact minorities may be at the

back of the queue for something that is of

great value to all Americans.

In Memphis, Tennessee, in mid-Janu-

ary, all 10,800 vaccine appointments were

claimed before those without internet ac-

cess could sign up by phone; but black and

Hispanic Americans are less likely to have

internet access. Location is also a barrier in

some instances. In Suffolk County, Massa-

chusetts, which includes Boston, 46% of

white residents live in a census tract within

one mile of a vaccination site, compared

with only 14% of black residents and 26% of

Hispanic residents. “If [the goal is] to help

reduce the suffering and the death particu-

larly experienced by black, Latino, and old-

er communities, then...everybody should

be focusing their vaccination efforts on

reaching those groups,” says Nina

Schwalbe of Columbia University’s Mail-

man School of Public Health. This has not

been the case, however.

In early January New York City an-

nounced new vaccination sites in the

Bronx and Queens, predominantly minor-

ity areas. But the mass-vaccination centres

at Citi Field and Yankee Stadium delayed

their openings because of low supplies,

while many other sites closed. In Dallas,

Texas, health officials attempted to give

vaccinations first to residents living in pre-

dominantly minority zip codes, but state

officials threatened to revoke vaccine allo-

cation if they were not distributed to all eli-

gible people regardless of race.

Unless states and cities prioritise vacci-

nating non-whites, they are likely to fall

behind. Yet if they do, that could create a

backlash and result in legal challenges. Ac-

cording to the Journal of the American Medi-

cal Association, such strategies would need

to use “racially neutral vaccine allocation

criteria” that could “lawfully prioritise

populations based on factors like geogra-

phy, socioeconomic status, and housing

density that would favour racial minorities

de facto, but not explicitly include race.”

This is problematic, because non-

whites are also more hesitant about getting

the vaccine anyway. According to the Asso-

ciation for a Better New York, a non-profit,

white New Yorkers are more eager to get the

vaccine as soon as possible—78%, com-

pared with 39% of black residents and 54%

of Hispanic and Asian residents. This mis-

trust need not necessarily be a big obstacle,

though. According to the same survey, peo-

ple’s interest in getting vaccinated grows

sharply once some people they know have

been vaccinated. For Asians the propensity

to get the jab increases by 26 percentage

points, for Hispanics by 29 points and for

African-Americans by 34 points.

“It is important to first reach those who

want the vaccine, and educate others in the

meantime,” says Dr Leana Wen of George

Washington University. Christopher Mar-

te, a community organiser in the Lower

East Side in New York City, recommends a

grassroots door-to-door approach. To

BOSTON

Inoculating non-whites is the first step

to reducing vaccine hesitation

Vaccinations

Access denied

Build it and they will come

To see how Joe Biden’s start compares with

other presidents’, go to: economist.com /

tracking-joe-biden