The EconomistJanuary 30th 2021 Europe 412 elegantlypolisheddesignoverpragmatic
localinitiative.“It’sanénarquetendency,”
saysone,referringtotheEcoleNationale
d’Administration,whichtrainsthe elite.In
somebureaucracies,suchasfinance,clear
command chains have nonetheless en-
abledpoliticaldecisionstobeputinplace
rapidly.Butthehealthsystemisa many-
tentacledbeast,linkingtheministry,na-
tionalagencies, 18 regionalauthoritiesand
departmentalpréfectures. “Wehavea cen-
tralstatethatwantstodecideandcontrol
everything, but lacks clear hierarchical
lines,”saysNicolasBauquetoftheInstitut
Montaigne,a think-tank:“Ontheground
everybodyisexpectedtowaitfortheplan.”
The upshot wasacomplexplan that
wastedprecioustime.Beforejabbingcare-
homeresidents,forinstance,thehealth
ministryproduceda45-pagevaccination
guide,includingsixpagesonhowtoobtain
residents’ consent. As the delays this
causedbecameclear,ruleslimitingvac-
cinestocare-homeresidentswereshelved,
andhealthworkersover 50 included.
BackinPoissy,themayorthinksPresi-
dentEmmanuelMacronneedstogivethe
“ants’nest”ofthe“techno-structure”a “big
kick”.Paradoxically,foralltheself-admin-
isteredcautionandrules,vaccinesupplyis
nowmorelikelytoholdthingsup.Forthe
slowroll-outhasinadvertentlyturnedthe
distrustfulFrenchintoimpatiententhusi-
asts:56%nowsaytheywanta jab. 7
I
n the colourfuljargon of Italian poli-
tics, the latest upheaval, which reached
its latest turning-point on January 27th.
That was when the president, Sergio Matta-
rella, began formal consultations with the
country’s political leaders, is a crisi al buio,
or “crisis in the dark”.
Sometimes, everything has been care-
fully settled in advance. The prime minis-
ter steps down, as Giuseppe Conte did the
day before, but in the knowledge that he—
there has yet to be a “she”—can count on
majority support in parliament for a re-
shuffled cabinet.
No such certainty exists this time.
Without the support of one of the smaller
parties in his coalition, Italia Viva, Mr
Conte no longer has a majority in the Sen-
ate, the upper house of parliament. Once he
has spoken to the speakers of the two
houses and the heads of each parliamenta-
ry group, President Mattarella may—ormaynot—askMrContetotry to form his
third government in three years. But even if
a solution can be found soon, which does
not look easy, the outcome could be a gov-
ernment that is shaky or explosive.
That gives the crisis a Europe-wide sig-
nificance. Under the eu’s plans for recovery
from the pandemic, Italy will get the big-
gest allocation, of more than €200bn
($240bn) in grants and loans, to be raised
mostly by borrowing underwritten jointly
by member states. Already doubts existed
about Italy’s ability to put its windfall to
good use. Its track record for taking advan-
tage of European funds is dismal.
By September 30th, three months be-
fore the expiry of the eu’s current budget,
Italy had yet to find an acceptable use for
14% of the “Structural and Investment”
funds to which it was entitled. Portugal,
Romania and Croatia had all, by contrast,
allocated their respective quotas. “There is
a great deal of fear with respect to the crises
that could affect [Italy],” said David Sassoli,
the Italian speaker of the European parlia-
ment. “The European recovery plan should
be getting under way and all the countries
ought to be concentrated on that.”
Mr Conte’s coalition, which includes
the ideologically eclectic Five Star Move-
ment (m 5 s), the centre-left Democratic
Party (pd) and the more left-wing but
smaller Free and Equal movement, had
been in trouble since January 13th. That was
when the ministers from a fourth coalition
party, Italia Viva, left the cabinet, mainly in
protest at the plans for spending Italy’s re-
covery funds.
Though polling a mere 3%, Italia Viva,
led by a former prime minister, Matteo
Renzi, still has enough senators to deprive
the government of a majority in the upper
house. And they were expected to defeat it
in a vote on a key reform, of the justice sys-
tem, on January 27th. Mr Conte decided tojump before he was pushed.
That should boost his chances of being
asked by Mr Mattarella to try either to woo
back Italia Viva or to replace it with inde-
pendent or opposition lawmakers. A first
snag is that Mr Conte has reportedly said he
wants nothing more to do with Mr Renzi.
And the same is true of some in the pdand
m 5 s. That could, of course, be a bluff. But a
second snag is that Mr Renzi’s many criti-
cisms of the government’s performance
suggest he may not be content with a re-
shuffle that gives his tiny party more clout.
He may genuinely want Mr Conte’s head.
If so, Mr Conte’s only resort would be to
construct a new majority. Silvio Berlus-
coni, whose conservative Forza Italia party
occupies 54 of the seats in the 321-seat Sen-
ate, has signalled his backing for a broader
coalition. But then another snag arises: the
Five Stars refuse to ally with a party they
view as incorrigibly sleazy. Mr Conte had
hoped to lure over a posse of Christian
Democrats. But—yet another snag—their
party secretary was put under formal in-
vestigation earlier this month, suspected
of helping the Calabrian mafia.
So another way out of the crisis could
well be a new prime minister, heading ei-
ther the previous coalition or a new one.
But he or she would need to be acceptable
to all concerned. If no such candidate were
found, and with all alternatives exhausted,
Mr Mattarella would have to call a snap
election in the midst of a pandemic. That,
polls suggest, could lead to a government
of the hard-right Northern League and the
Brothers of Italy, heirs of the neo-fascist
movement. But an election is still the least
likely solution. A reform, approved by a ref-
erendum last year, cut the number of seats
in parliament by around a third. The cur-
rent lawmakers’ instinct for self-preserva-
tion will surely mean that everything pos-
sible is done to avoid a ballot. 7ROME
But Giuseppe Conte may not really
be goneItalyGoing, going...
If he stays it will be double