The Economist - USA (2021-01-30)

42 Europe The EconomistJanuary 30th 2021

F

oryears, AdnanOktar’scultmadefor

outrageouslybadtelevision.News-

papersindulgedhimasa crackpot,an

Islamicpreachersurroundedbya harem

ofwomeninheavymake-upandswim-

suits.(MrOktararguedthebikiniwasa

formofreligiouscovering.)Fewpeople

tookhimseriously.Theauthorities

mostlyseemedtoignorehim.

HisluckranoutonJanuary11th,when

a Turkishcourtsentencedhimtoover

1,000yearsinjailforfraud,tortureand

sexualabuse.MrOktarwasa chameleon.

Heembraced,thendisavowed,anti-

Semitism.Heconvincedhisfollowershe

wasthemessiah.Hepreacheda conser-

vativestrandofIslaminthe1980s,dia-

loguebetwenChristians,Muslimsand

Jewsafter2001,andafter2011,whenhe

launchedhisowntvchannel,sex.Onhis

show,MrOktarwouldappearflankedby

scantilycladwomen,whomhecalledhis

“kittens”,andmendresseduptothe

nines.Betweensermonsonworldevents

andIslamicdoctrine,hewoulddance

withhis“kittens”topopmusic.

Inhissparetime,hedenounced

Darwin.Hecollectedfossils,campaigned

againsttheteachingofevolutionand

wrotean800-pagedoorstoppercalled

the“AtlasofCreation”,copiesofwhichhe

mailedtopoliticiansandscientists.

WhenRichardDawkins,a biologist,

calledhima quack,MrOktarconvinceda

courttoblockhiswebsiteinTurkey.Last

year,hisatlasmadea surpriseappear-

anceonthebookshelfofChristineLa-

garde,theheadoftheEuropeanCentral

Bank,duringa Zoomcall.MsLagardehad

neverbotheredtoopenit,apparently.

ReportssurfacedthatMrOktarwas

groominghisfollowersassexslaveswith

cocaine,videoandblackmail.“Every

freedomI hadwasgone,”saysa former

follower.Untilrecently,suchallegations

earnedMrOktaronlya coupleofbrief

spellsinprison,andoneina mental

hospital.Fewofhisfollowersdaredto

speakout.Criticsweresuedforlibel.

Whenthepoliceclosedin,MrOktar

resortedtoconspiracytheory.Heblamed

the“homosexuallobby”and“theBritish

deepstate”forhislegaltroubles.His

arrest,heclaimed,wastheworkof

QueenElizabeth.Likesomuchofwhat

hesaid,it wasn’ttrue.

A cultleadergets1,000yearsinjail

Tu r ke y

ISTANBUL

AdnanOktarwasfoundguiltyofkeepingsexslaves

Seeyouin 3021

I

f europe’s economies were a brass

band, Germany’s would be the tuba: the

biggest, most reliable generator of oom-

pah-pah on a continent of cornets and bu-

gles. Last spring it coped with the sharpest

recession since the second world war bet-

ter than its neighbours, thanks to a shorter

and looser covid-19 lockdown and a mas-

sive fiscal stimulus. This year Germany was

expected to recover its mighty puff more

quickly than its peers.

However, the latest statistics suggest

that the tuba’s valves are stuck: the recov-

ery might not be as robust as forecast. On

January 14th Destatis, the official statistics

agency, announced that the German econ-

omy shrank by 5% last year. This is painful,

but not nearly as bad as the double-digit

contractions expected in Spain and several

other European countries. In the last quar-

ter of the year it stagnated, Destatis said.

Germany will almost certainly find it-

self back in recession in the first quarter of

this year. A survey of purchasing managers

by ihs Markit, a provider of financial data,

published on January 22nd, suggests that

the economy is barely growing this month.

Manufacturers are hit hard by shortages of

containers for deliveries and higher prices

of commodities. Florian Hense, an econo-

mist at Berenberg, Germany’s oldest priv-

ate bank, predicts “a dark winter” with a

contraction of 1% for the first quarter com-

pared with the previous quarter “with the

risks tilted to the downside”.

A setback in the first quarter means that

the predictions of the government and eco-

nomic research institutes were too opti-

mistic. On January 27th Peter Altmaier, the

German economy minister, slashed his

forecast for economic growth for 2021 from

4.4% to just 3%. Leading economic re-

search institutes, which in December pre-

dicted 4.7% growth for 2021, are also likely

to cut their forecasts.

Though Germany was widely admired

for its level-headed management of the

first wave of the pandemic, it is struggling

with the second. It imposed a light lock-

down at the start of November that closed

down restaurants and cinemas but left

shops open. As infection rates kept creep-

ing up, the lockdown was extended and

toughened in mid-December with the clo-

sure of all non-essential shops and

schools. On January 18th Germany’s central

bank said that the economy is managing to

stay afloat but could suffer a “sizeable set-

back” if coronavirus curbs are extended

again. The following day, after hours of

emotional debate with the state premiers,

Angela Merkel, the chancellor, announced

that the lockdown would be extended until

mid-February, and also slightly toughened.

Things could get worse. The number of

insolvencies last year was lower than in

2019 thanks to a ruling by the government

that gave companies more time with their

paperwork. That concession has now ex-

pired, and Stefan Schneider, chief German

economist at Deutsche Bank, predicts a

wave of bankruptcies. Even businesses that

were in good health before the pandemic

could be affected. The German Retail Asso-

ciation warns that up to 50,000 shops may

go belly up in the coming months. And ac-

cording to kfw, a public development

bank, more than a million jobs in small and

midsized businesses are at risk.

As soon as temperatures rise, and more

Germans have received the covid-19 vac-

cine, prospects are rosier. “Germany is

structurally still strong,” says Holger

Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg.

Thanks to its generous furlough scheme

Germany will not see mass unemploy-

ment. The second lockdown is hardly af-

fecting manufacturing, which is hum-

ming. Machinery and carmaking, two

pivotal industries, will take off again in

2021, predicts Mr Schmieding.

Even so, the structural problems that

predate the pandemic, such as an ageing

workforce, a delay in digitising govern-

ment and businesses, creaking infrastruc-

ture and over-dependence on exports, have

not gone away. Little more can now be done

to tackle them in an election year, but the

next chancellor will have to take a deep

breath and get to work. 7

BERLIN

The economy minister slashes his

optimistic forecast

Germany

Wheezing