The EconomistJanuary 30th 2021 Europe 43A
fter a decadein Britain, it took Alexej Kirillov barely 24
hours to decide to leave. In March 2020, as Europe’s borders
slammed shut, Mr Kirillov, a 31-year-old strategy consultant, had a
choice: lockdown in a costly, lonely London flat or go home to the
Czech Republic and be close to family. “I was not planning to leave
for another five years, or longer, or never,” he says. But covid-19
changed his mind. Nearly a year on, he has set up shop in his
homeland. A temporary return has become permanent. “Now I’m
back, I think why didn’t I move back sooner?”
He was not alone. In 2020 Europe saw a great reverse migration,
as those who had sought work abroad returned home. Exact num-
bers are hard to come by. An estimated 1.3m Romanians went back
to Romania—equivalent to three times the population of its sec-
ond-biggest city. Perhaps 500,000 Bulgarians returned to Bulgar-
ia—a huge number for a country of 7m. Lithuania has seen more
citizens arriving than leaving for the first time in years. Other mea-
sures show the same. In Warsaw, dating apps brim with returning
Poles looking for socially undistanced fun. Politicians in eastern
Europe had long complained of a “brain drain” as their brightest
left in search of higher wages in the west. Now the pandemic, a
shifting economy and changing work patterns are bringing many
of them back. A “brain gain” has begun.
Migration vexes European politicians. Freedom of move-
ment—the ability to move to any country in the eu—is among the
most popular benefits of belonging to the club. It is especially
cherished by citizens of former communist countries, who have
grim memories of being prevented from travelling by their own
rulers. However, although most Europeans believe in freedom of
movement for themselves, some are less sure about granting it to
others. (Hence Brexit.) And governments of countries that lose lots
of clever, enterprising young people tend to lament this fact.
Graphics on Lithuanian government websites show the popula-
tion dwindling from 3.7m in 1990 to 2.8m in 2019, thanks to emi-
gration and low birth rates. About 2m Poles—or 5% of the country’s
population—live elsewhere in Europe. Often, it is the most quali-
fied. Doctors and nurses quitting Romania are a particular bug-
bear. Migration creates a clash of interests between individuals,
who want to better their own lot, and governments, who would of-
ten prefer them to stick around and pay taxes. Ivan Krastev, a Bul-
garian writer, observes that “It is easier to go to Germany than to
make Bulgaria function like Germany.” And so people do.
Yet even before the pandemic, this process had started to re-
verse in some places. Emigrants from the Baltic states have been
heading back, having earned a nest-egg or picked up useful skills
in western Europe. Homeward-bound Estonians have outstripped
leaving Estonians since 2017. A goverment programme to help re-
turning Lithuanians had 215 consultations in 2015; this ballooned
to nearly 9,000 by 2019. Similar tales can be heard in bigger coun-
tries. In 2018 the number of Poles abroad started to fall for the first
time in nearly a decade and has steadily declined ever since, ac-
cording to the Polish Economic Institute, a think-tank. Dedicated
schemes—ranging from glossy propaganda about life in the Bal-
tics to free Polish lessons for children born abroad—are common.
Migration anywhere in the world is often temporary. In Europe
several factors are pushing and pulling people homewards. Liam
Patuzzi of the Migration Policy Institute Europe, a think-tank,
notes that the economic gap between east and west is closing. La-
bour markets in eastern Europe are hot. Before the pandemic, the
unemployment rate in the Czech Republic was about 2%, the low-
est in the bloc, down from almost 9% when it joined in 2004. Wage
gaps, though still large, are falling. In 2010 a Romanian who moved
to Italy could expect to earn five times more; in 2019, only three
times. For the highly skilled the gap is narrower still. Throw in
perks such as Romanian software developers being exempt from
income tax, and a job in Bucharest can trump one in Brussels.
Remote working alters the calculation, too. A new grey econ-
omy has sprung up across the eu, with white-collar staff living in
one country but illicitly working in another (and paying tax in the
wrong place, as a result). Often these people are expats in their own
country, physically at home, but telecommuting across a border.
Headhunters now dangle the prospect of working anywhere, says a
Romanian private-equity executive. Once the taxman catches up,
however, those grey workers will have to choose: stay or go.Darling, you got to let me know
Blue-collar workers typically have fewer choices. Waiters and
cleaners, many of whom are migrants, cannot work remotely.
Some 700,000 foreign workers have left London during the pan-
demic, deciding that the occasional glimpse of the Thames did not
make up for high rents and the sudden collapse of job opportuni-
ties. But for white-collar workers the link between opportunity
and location could be drastically weakened, spelling another shift
in migration patterns. Greece, which saw phalanxes of youngsters
leave during its bail-out, is eager to attract them back. If the sun is
not tempting enough, the tax breaks help. Workers who move to
the country can have their tax bill halved for the first seven years.
The number of people flowing back to eastern Europe is still
much smaller than the number who originally left. And those who
went home because of the pandemic may head off again when the
lockdowns ease. About two-thirds of the Bulgarians who returned
plan to migrate again, according to the European Council on For-
eign Relations, a think-tank. In the long run, even as wage gaps
close, some people will always seek adventure in foreign lands.
Open borders in Europe allow people to choose where to live,
which inevitably means that less attractive places will lose popula-
tion. But nothing remains the same. Countries can grow more ap-
pealing, and people can change their minds quite suddenly about
where they want to live. Ask Mr Kirillov. 7Charlemagne Eastern Europe’s brain gain
How the pandemic has reversed old migration patterns