44 TheEconomistJanuary 30th 2021
1A
s boris johnsonflew northward on
January 28th to try to persuade the
Scots of the value of the union, the land be-
neath him seemed ready to break apart.
Many unionists think the United Kingdom
is bound to disintegrate. Brexit has loos-
ened the bonds between the four nations.
More than twice as many Britons think
Scotland will get independence in ten years
than think the country will hold together
(see chart on next page). Fewer than half
say they’d be upset.
The Scottish National Party (snp) is ex-
pected to win a majority in elections to the
Scottish Parliament in May, which it will
use to seek a second referendum on separa-
tion. In the first ballot, held in 2014, Scots
voted to remain in the uk, but a majority
now consistently say they want indepen-
dence. Nicola Sturgeon, the snpleader, has
strong approval ratings; Mr Johnson does
not. Brexit is causing havoc with the Scot-
tish fishing industry. Scots think indepen-
dence will leave them poorer, but like
Brexit the project is a triumph of constitu-tional ideals over economic interest.
And yet to Scottish Nationalists the Un-
ited Kingdom looks vexingly robust. De-
spite support for independence, a mecha-
nism to break up the uklies frustratingly
beyond reach. On January 24th, Michael
Russell, the snpminister responsible for
the constitution, presented his impatient
members with a new plan to force a refer-
endum. Its chances of working are slim.
The reason is Britain’s constitutional
law. There is no British equivalent of the
eu’s Article 50, the secession clause any
state can invoke. Rather, the Scotland Act,
which created the Scottish Parliament,
stipulates that the constitution is West-
minster’s domain. David Cameron’s gov-
ernment granted permission for the 2014
referendum under a Section 30 order, a de-
vice which allows the Scottish Parliament
to pass laws in areas normally reserved for
Westminster. Mr Johnson says that he
won’t grant such an order, and that the wait
between Britain’s referendums on Europe
in 1975 and 2016 is “a good sort of gap”—suggesting no Scottish vote until 2055.
Yet the government is alarmed at sup-
port for independence, and is drawing up a
strategy to reinforce the union. Mr Johnson
used his visit to praise the role of Whitehall
and the British Army getting covid-19 vac-
cines to Scotland. He faces none of the
pressure from within his party to hold a
vote which Mr Cameron did on Europe. A
prolonged independence rift in Scotland
would allow the Tories to scoop up the
votes of pro-union Scots.
Many nationalists know this. Their
fears that independence will slip through
their fingers if Mr Johnson holds firm were
aired at an online meeting on January 22nd
of All Under One Banner, a group which or-
ganises marches for independence. Some
speakers called for strikes and protests out-
side the snp’s headquarters; others ac-
cused the party leadership of growing too
comfortable with devolution. Angus Mac-
Neil, the snp mpfor the Western Isles, reck-
ons Mr Johnson would be “a mug” to agree
to a referendum now, and says the snp
should simply use May’s election as a ballot
on independence. Joanna Cherry, a poten-
tial successor to Ms Sturgeon, argues that
Irish independence was won after Sinn
Fein mps won a majority in Ireland, mean-
ing no referendum is necessary. Some ac-
tivists see precedents in how Kosovo and
Lithuania split with their masters.
Such talk makes Ms Sturgeon’s team
wince. She insists any referendum must beScotlandSearching for the exit
Most Britons think Scotland is heading for independence. Most Scots want it.
But they lack the means to get itBritain
45 Londonslangspreads
46 Bagehot: Party of colourAlso in this section