The Economist - USA (2021-01-30)

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units

% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change

latest quarter* 2020† latest 2020† % % of GDP, 2020† % of GDP, 2020† latest,% year ago, bp Jan 27th on year ago

United States -2.8 Q3 33.4 -3.6 1.4 Dec 1.2 6.7 Dec -2.2 -14.9 1.0 -57.0 -

China 6.5 Q4 10.8 1.9 0.2 Dec 2.5 5.2 Dec‡§ 1.5 -5.2 3.0 §§ 24.0 6.47 7.1

Japan -5.7 Q3 22.9 -5.3 -1.2 Dec nil 2.9 Nov 2.7 -12.2 nil -8.0 104 4.6

Britain -8.6 Q3 81.1 -11.4 0.6 Dec 0.9 5.0 Oct†† -1.3 -19.7 0.3 -28.0 0.73 5.5

Canada -5.2 Q3 40.5 -5.5 0.7 Dec 0.8 8.8 Dec -1.8 -13.5 0.8 -51.0 1.28 3.1

Euro area -4.3 Q3 59.9 -7.6 -0.3 Dec 0.3 8.3 Nov 2.6 -9.2 -0.5 -15.0 0.83 9.6

Austria -4.0 Q3 54.6 -6.9 1.2 Dec 1.1 5.2 Nov 2.4 -8.5 -0.4 -20.0 0.83 9.6

Belgium -4.5 Q3 54.2 -7.9 0.4 Dec 0.4 6.1 Nov -1.3 -9.1 -0.3 -22.0 0.83 9.6

France -3.9 Q3 98.3 -9.2 nil Dec 0.5 8.8 Nov -2.3 -11.3 -0.3 -24.0 0.83 9.6

Germany -4.0 Q3 38.5 -5.4 -0.3 Dec 0.4 4.5 Nov 6.8 -7.0 -0.5 -15.0 0.83 9.6

Greece -9.6 Q3 9.5 -9.9 -2.3 Dec -1.4 16.7 Oct -6.6 -9.2 0.7 -53.0 0.83 9.6

Italy -5.0 Q3 80.4 -9.1 -0.2 Dec -0.1 8.9 Nov 2.9 -11.3 0.6 -44.0 0.83 9.6

Netherlands -2.5 Q3 34.8 -4.4 1.0 Dec 1.1 3.8 Mar 7.2 -6.9 -0.5 -29.0 0.83 9.6

Spain -9.0 Q3 83.6 -11.4 -0.5 Dec -0.3 16.4 Nov 0.8 -12.0 0.1 -30.0 0.83 9.6

Czech Republic -5.3 Q3 30.8 -6.6 2.3 Dec 3.1 2.9 Nov‡ 1.3 -6.7 1.3 -28.0 21.6 6.4

Denmark -3.8 Q3 22.6 -4.0 0.5 Dec 0.4 4.5 Nov 8.5 -3.6 -0.4 -6.0 6.15 10.4

Norway -0.2 Q3 19.7 -1.7 1.4 Dec 1.4 5.2 Oct‡‡ 3.2 -1.3 1.0 -33.0 8.63 5.9

Poland -1.8 Q3 35.5 -3.0 2.4 Dec 3.4 6.2 Dec§ 2.6 -7.9 1.1 -107 3.76 3.5

Russia -3.4 Q3 na -3.8 4.9 Dec 3.4 6.1 Nov§ 2.1 -4.3 6.6 27.0 75.6 -16.7

Sweden -2.7 Q3 21.2 -3.2 0.5 Dec 0.4 7.7 Nov§ 4.8 -3.5 0.1 1.0 8.36 15.2

Switzerland -1.6 Q3 31.9 -3.0 -0.8 Dec -0.7 3.4 Dec 9.1 -3.7 -0.5 23.0 0.89 9.0

Turkey 6.7 Q3 na 0.4 14.6 Dec 12.3 12.7 Oct§ -5.4 -3.4 12.8 267 7.38 -19.4

Australia -3.8 Q3 14.0 -2.9 0.9 Q4 0.8 6.6 Dec 0.9 -7.3 1.1 -4.0 1.30 13.8

Hong Kong -3.5 Q3 11.8 -5.7 -0.6 Dec 0.4 6.6 Dec‡‡ 5.5 -6.7 0.8 -77.0 7.75 0.4

India -7.5 Q3 125 -7.9 4.6 Dec 6.7 9.1 Dec 1.3 -7.2 6.0 -60.0 72.9 -2.0

Indonesia -3.5 Q3 na -2.2 1.7 Dec 2.0 7.1 Q3§ -1.4 -7.2 6.2 -44.0 14,050 -3.2

Malaysia -2.7 Q3 na -5.3 -1.4 Dec -0.9 4.8 Nov§ 4.8 -7.4 2.7 -46.0 4.05 0.3

Pakistan 0.5 2020** na -2.8 8.0 Dec 9.5 5.8 2018 0.1 -8.1 9.9 ††† -116 160 -3.7

Philippines -8.3 Q4 24.4 -9.3 3.5 Dec 2.6 8.7 Q4§ 3.4 -7.8 3.0 -160 48.1 5.7

Singapore -3.8 Q4 8.7 -6.0 nil Dec -0.3 3.6 Q3 18.0 -13.9 1.0 -66.0 1.33 2.3

South Korea -1.3 Q4 4.4 -1.1 0.5 Dec 0.5 4.1 Dec§ 3.8 -5.7 1.8 6.0 1,105 5.8

Taiwan 3.9 Q3 16.6 2.4 0.1 Dec -0.2 3.8 Dec 13.8 -1.5 0.3 -30.0 28.0 7.2

Thailand -6.4 Q3 28.8 -6.1 -0.3 Dec -0.8 2.0 Nov§ 3.6 -6.3 1.2 -11.0 30.0 2.4

Argentina -10.2 Q3 61.7 -9.8 36.1 Dec‡ 42.0 11.7 Q3§ 1.4 -8.0 na -464 87.1 -31.0

Brazil -3.9 Q3 34.6 -4.4 4.5 Dec 3.2 14.3 Oct§‡‡ -0.7 -15.8 7.7 99.0 5.41 -21.8

Chile -9.1 Q3 22.6 -6.2 3.0 Dec 3.0 10.8 Nov§‡‡ 1.4 -7.9 2.6 -76.0 738 7.1

Colombia -9.5 Q3 39.6 -7.0 1.6 Dec 2.5 13.3 Nov§ -3.6 -8.8 4.9 -86.0 3,623 -6.2

Mexico -8.6 Q3 58.0 -8.9 3.2 Dec 3.4 4.4 Dec 2.3 -4.5 5.2 -155 20.2 -6.1

Peru -9.4 Q3 187 -12.0 2.0 Dec 1.8 11.8 Dec§ 1.0 -8.0 3.8 -32.0 3.65 -8.5

Egypt 0.7 Q3 na 3.6 5.4 Dec 5.1 7.3 Q3§ -3.4 -7.9 na nil 15.7 0.5

Israel -1.5 Q3 39.7 -3.7 -0.7 Dec -0.6 4.8 Nov 4.0 -11.3 0.8 -7.0 3.27 5.8

Saudi Arabia 0.3 2019 na -4.2 5.4 Dec 3.5 8.5 Q3 -3.7 -10.7 na nil 3.75 nil

South Africa -6.0 Q3 66.1 -7.3 3.1 Dec 3.3 30.8 Q3§ 0.6 -16.0 8.8 -31.0 15.2 -3.8

Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving

average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

72 The EconomistJanuary 30th 2021

Commodities

TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on

2015=100 Jan 19th Jan 26th* month year

DollarIndex

AllItems 159.8 158.4 2.4 39.6

Food 125.8 124.5 4.2 24.4

Industrials

All 191.6 190.0 1.3 50.8

Non-foodagriculturals 124.3 131.8 2.0 29.4

Metals 211.6 207.3 1.2 55.6

SterlingIndex

Allitems 179.2 175.9 0.5 31.8

EuroIndex

Allitems 146.2 144.4 3.0 26.2

Gold

$ peroz 1,841.9 1,853.5 -1.4 18.0

Brent

$ perbarrel 56.0 56.0 9.3 -6.7

Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Refinitiv Datastream;

Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool

Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets

% change on: % change on:

Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st

In local currency Jan 27th week 2019 Jan 27th week 2019

United States S&P 500 3,750.8 -2.6 16.1

United States NAScomp 13,270.6 -1.4 47.9

China Shanghai Comp 3,573.3 -0.3 17.2

China Shenzhen Comp 2,420.9 0.3 40.5

Japan Nikkei 225 28,635.2 0.4 21.0

Japan Topix 1,860.1 0.6 8.1

Britain FTSE 100 6,567.4 -2.6 -12.9

Canada S&P TSX 17,424.4 -3.3 2.1

Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,536.4 -2.4 -5.6

France CAC 40 5,459.6 -3.0 -8.7

Germany DAX* 13,620.5 -2.2 2.8

Italy FTSE/MIB 21,662.7 -4.4 -7.8

Netherlands AEX 647.9 -1.7 7.2

Spain IBEX 35 7,852.7 -4.3 -17.8

Poland WIG 56,453.9 -2.9 -2.4

Russia RTS, $ terms 1,393.0 -6.3 -10.1

Switzerland SMI 10,904.2 -0.4 2.7

Tu r ke y BIST 1,467.0 -6.5 28.2

Australia All Ord. 7,060.2 0.1 3.8

Hong Kong Hang Seng 29,297.5 -2.2 3.9

India BSE 47,409.9 -4.8 14.9

Indonesia IDX 6,109.2 -5.0 -3.0

Malaysia KLSE 1,580.6 -1.3 -0.5

Pakistan KSE 46,458.1 1.7 14.0

Singapore STI 2,958.6 -1.3 -8.2

South Korea KOSPI 3,122.6 0.3 42.1

Taiwan TWI 15,701.5 -0.7 30.9

Thailand SET 1,498.1 -1.2 -5.2

Argentina MERV 49,970.4 -0.5 19.9

Brazil BVSP 115,882.3 -3.1 0.2

Mexico IPC 44,262.0 -1.9 1.7

Egypt EGX 30 11,578.8 -0.2 -17.1

Israel TA-125 1,639.4 -2.6 1.4

Saudi Arabia Tadawul 8,784.1 -1.1 4.7

South Africa JSE AS 62,784.5 -2.1 10.0

World, dev'd MSCI 2,694.4 -2.4 14.2

Emerging markets MSCI 1,371.4 -2.1 23.0

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries

Dec 31st

Basis points latest 2019

Investment grade 133 141

High-yield 408 449

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income

Research. *Total return index.

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