Barron's - USA (2021-02-15)

M34 BARRON’S February 15, 2021

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedFeb10:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 6,858,639 + 17,726 +3,030,377

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... ....

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 1,674 -169 + 1,674

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit .... .... ....

Float -68 + 349 + 27

OtherF.R.Assets 42,612 + 1,936 + 11,070

TotalFedCredit# 7,388,030 + 21,196 +3,253,013

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,525 + 14 + 408

Total 7,476,710 + 21,111 +3,254,965

Currencyincirc 2,099,380 + 1,954 + 305,024

Treas.CashHldgs 61 + 12 -170

Treas.FedDeposits 1,608,906 -16,419 +1,197,669

ForeignFedDeposits 21,959 + 110 + 16,776

OtherFedDeposits 179,776 -13,212 + 117,421

OtherFRliab/cap 51,857 + 2,380 + 7,325

Totalfactors 4,217,790 -44,691 +1,671,611

ReservesF.R.banks 3,258,919 + 65,801 +1,583,353

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,535,683 + 4,390 + 77,252

ReserveAggr(Mil.$) Latest Prev.Month% Year

MonthEnded January: Month Month Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 3,153,600 3,135,000 0.59 1,715,200

Nonborrowed Res 3,101,000 3,076,300 0.80 1,715,200

Borrowed Reserves 52,586 58,685 -10.39 6

MonetaryBase 5,247,900 5,206,600 0.79 3,442,600

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 2/12 2/5 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1816.35 1802.95 1581.40

Silver,troyounce 27.32 26.96 17.76

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1896.44 72.94 4.00

MapleLeaf 1914.68 91.18 5.00

MexicanPeso 2206.59 8.00 0.36

AustriaCrown 1790.39 3.00 0.17

AustriaPhil 1914.68 91.18 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1914.68 91.18 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice1823.50

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 2/11 2/4 Ago Chg.

1019.26391.56 Gold mining 954.29 931.69596.18 +2.43

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus BullishSentiment 71% 70% 71%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 45.5% 37.4% 37.7%

Bearish 26.3 35.6 38.3

Neutral 28.3 27.1 24.0

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 53% 51% 53%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 47.7% 44.5% 44.0%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 21,336 r48,543 29,099

Municipal (z) 9,135 r6,827 11,555

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

1.41 1.42 2.35

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

2.64 2.68 3.28

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

53.4 53.0 71.7

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4409.91 4436.44 4260.95

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3340.08 3334.43 3161.02

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

322.12 322.24 307.10

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.10 2.21 2.51

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.39 3.41 3.52

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

+.47 +.48 –.17

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 2.06 2.08 2.59

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedFebruary1

M1(seas.adjusted) 6,812.2r6,812.44,088.9 66.60

M1(notadjusted) 7,092.4r6,897.64,163.3 70.36

M2(seas.adjusted) 19,414.9r19,411.915,489.7 25.34

M2(notadjusted) 19,433.7r19,320.415,428.6 25.96

MonthendedJanuary

M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) 1.279 r1.274 1.150 11.22

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedJanuary

M1(seas.adjusted) 6,750.9r6,534.73,980.9 69.58

M2(seas.adjusted) 19,395.3r19,088.815,437.9 25.63

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

M A M J J A S O N D JF

Barron's Gold Mining Index (954.29)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

Whited-Out:Gold rose 0.7% on the

week, to $1,816 an ounce. The real ac-

tion is in platinum, now up 17% this year.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 2/8 2/9 2/10 2/11 2/12

NYSE .98 1.51 .88 1.18 .64

NYSEAmerican .05 1.08 .24 .45 .81

Nasdaq .47 .44 .35 1.15 1.33

SouthKorea(Won) .0009055 .0008946 1104.37 1117.76

SriLanka(Rupee) .0051 .0052 194.2800 193.5100

Sweden(Krona) .1204 .1194 8.3047 8.3722

Switzerland(Franc) 1.1213 1.1125 .8918 .8989

Taiwan(Dollar) .03568 .03573 28.030 27.989

Thailand(Baht) .03343 .03333 29.910 30.000

Turkey(New Lira)-d .1421 .1418 7.0369 7.0538

Ukraine(Hryvnia) .0358 .0360 27.9500 27.7500

U.K.(Pound) 1.3856 1.3735 .7217 .7281

Uruguay(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02344 .02345 42.665 42.635

----

Euro 1.2119 1.2049 .8251 .8299

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 0.25 0.25 2.25

PrimeRate(base) 3.25 3.25 4.75

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 0.08 0.08 1.60

Avg weekly auction-c 0.08 0.08 1.59

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.035 0.066 1.582

13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.035 0.065 1.550

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.051 0.071 1.547

26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.050 0.070 1.510
Avg weekly auction-c 0.05 0.07 1.54

BrokerCallRate 2.00 2.00 3.50

BankersAcceptances

1 month 0.12 0.12 1.60

2 months 0.13 0.15 1.63

3 months 0.15 0.18 1.70

6 months 0.20 0.20 1.75

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.580 -0.579 -0.521

3 months -0.550 -0.554 -0.436

6 months -0.543 -0.539 -0.396

12 months -0.500 -0.503 -0.317

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 0.11 0.12 1.66

3 months 0.19 0.19 1.69

6 months 0.20 0.21 1.71

12 months 0.30 0.30 1.80

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 2.45 2.45 3.95

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.50

Britain 0.10 0.10 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 1.99 2.02 2.98

Bank money market-z 0.08 0.08 0.21

Interest Checking-z 0.04 0.04 0.07

6-Month Certif-z 0.14 0.14 0.50

12-Month Certif-z 0.19 0.20 0.76
30 Month Accounts-z 0.19 0.21 0.80

5-Year Certificates-z 0.33 0.34 1.13

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby
theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.

Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.

Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.10

0.95

0.80

0.65

0.50

0.35

4.90

4.00

3.10

2.20

1.30

0.40

S&P 100 CBOE

F M A M J J A S O N D J F

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100s

sCBOE

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

Friday,February12,2021

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina(Peso)-y .0113 .0114 88.4642 87.9275

Australia(Dollar) .7760 .7678 1.2887 1.3024

Bahrain(Dinar) 2.6524 2.6535 .3770 .3769

Brazil(Real) .1862 .1862 5.3700 5.3707

Bulgaria(Lev) .6187 .6156 1.6162 1.6243

Canada(Dollar) .7879 .7837 1.2693 1.2759

Chile(Peso) .001385 .001353 721.80 739.00

China(Renminbi) .1548 .1546 6.4582 6.4667

Colombia(Peso) .0002860 .0002813 3496.50 3555.50

Croatia(Kuna) .1600077 .1593575 6.25 6.28

Czech.Rep.(Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .04710 .04672 21.233 21.404

Denmark(Krone) .1630 .1620 6.1360 6.1714

EcuadorUSDollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt(Pound)-y .0640 .0637 15.6183 15.6905

HongKong(Dollar) .1290 .1290 7.7530 7.7527

Hungary(Forint) .003380 .003378 295.85 296.05

Iceland(Krona) .007789 .007778 128.39 128.56

India(Rupee) .01378 .01374 72.593 72.788

Indonesia(Rupiah) .0000716 .0000713 13973 14030

Israel(Shekel) .3075 .3041 3.2522 3.2887

Japan(Yen) .009532 .009490 104.92 105.38

Kazakhstan(Tenge) .002386 .002378 419.09 420.50

Kuwait(Dinar) 3.3059 3.3012 .3025 .3029

Macau(Pataca) .1251 .1252 7.9915 7.9900

Malaysia(Ringgit)-b .2474 .2457 4.0425 4.0705

Mexico(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0501 .0498 19.9487 20.0912

NewZealand(Dollar) .7219 .7203 1.3852 1.3883

Norway(Krone) .1182 .1173 8.4620 8.5274

Oman(Rial) 2.5976 2.5976 .3850 .3850

Pakistan(Rupee) .00629 .00624 158.883 160.250

Philippines(Peso) .02081 .02078 48.061 48.115

Poland(Zloty) .2695 .2687 3.7108 3.7211

Qatar(Rial) .2746 .2746 3.6413 3.6418

Russia(Ruble)-a .01358 .01340 73.655 74.649

SaudiArabia(Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7508 3.7510

Singapore(Dollar) .7549 .7493 1.3247 1.3345

SouthAfrica(Rand) .0687 .0674 14.5514 14.8371

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.