The Economist - USA (2021-02-13)

TheEconomistFebruary 13th 2021 23

1

W

hen it comesto actually passing leg-

islation in Congress, intramural un-

ity among Democrats will matter much

more than the bipartisan unity that Presi-

dent Joe Biden seemed to be seeking in the

opening days of his administration. As the

impeachment trial of former president Do-

nald Trump limps to its foregone conclu-

sion in the Senate, Democrats will also be

muscling through Mr Biden’s ambitious

covid-19 relief package costing $1.9trn uni-

laterally, using a parliamentary manoeuvre

that will require no Republican votes.

There is little reason to doubt that the same

strategy will be employed to pass the sec-

ond immediate aim of the Biden adminis-

tration, an enormous infrastructure pack-

age. Parliamentary quirks and partisan

incentives mean that conservative Demo-

crats will matter much more to the White

House than luring liberal-ish Republicans.

There are two conceivable routes to

passing Mr Biden’s legislative agenda. The

first is through normal operating proce-

dure, also called regular order. Such bills

can be sweeping in scope or narrowly tai-

lored to attract Republican votes, most

likely those of senators like Susan Collins

of Maine or Lisa Murkowski of Alaska (both

of whom voted against repealing Obama-

care) or Mitt Romney, who favours, like

many Democrats, expansive child benefits.

The problem with bills proposed in the or-

dinary way is that they are subject to the

threat of a filibuster, effectively raising the

threshold for passage from 50 votes to 60.

The task of luring another seven Repub-

licans derails most major Democratic am-

bitions. Political scientists have devised a

quantitative score of how left- or right-

leaning a legislator is, known as dw nomi-

nate. The current rankings show that the

60th most liberal senator is Cindy Hyde-

Smith of Mississippi—a pro-life, pro-bal-

anced budget sort of Republican not espe-

cially known for her bipartisan ways. There

are perhaps a few areas where some legisla-

tion could avoid a filibuster, like criminal-

justice reform and paid family leave, but

these pale in comparison to Mr Biden’s

dreams. That was clear in the president’s

reaction to the counter-offer made by ten

Republicans offered to his proposed stimu-

lus, which was about one-third the size of

his. After giving a good-natured, two-hour-

long hearing to the senators at the White

House, Mr Biden ultimately ignored their

preferred framework and advanced instead

by the second route: reconciliation.

This is the special parliamentary proce-

dure for passing budgetary legislation,

which is immune from filibustering and

requires only a simple majority of senators

to pass. In general, reconciliation can be

used only once per fiscal year. But because

Republicans did not pass a budget resolu-

tion for the current fiscal year, Democrats

will probably have two opportunities in

2021. The first will be devoted to the stimu-
      lus, while the second will probably be de-
      voted to infrastructure and possibly in-
      clude tax increases and revisions.
      In theory, a 50-vote threshold ought to
      allow more cross-party coalitions. But the
      temptations of reconciliation—the rare
      chance it offers of sidestepping a filibus-

Congress

Swing voters

WASHINGTON, DC

Unable to surmount a filibuster, Democrats are pursuing a strategy in the Senate

that is deadly for bipartisanship

United States

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