The EconomistFebruary 13th 2021 The Americas 352
Bello Ecuador’s politics of the negative
F
or a decadeRafael Correa, a leftist
populist, ruled Ecuador as an au-
tocrat. Enjoying an oil boom, he doubled
the size of the state, built roads and
hospitals, curbed the media, harassed
opponents and presided over corruption.
As money got tight, he lined up a proxy:
Lenín Moreno, his former vice-presi-
dent, narrowly won a presidential elec-
tion in 2017 against Guillermo Lasso, a
conservative banker. But then Mr Cor-
rea’s plan unravelled.
Faced with an oil bust, Mr Moreno
broke with his predecessor in both eco-
nomics and politics. Since Ecuador
adopted the dollar in 2000, it cannot
devalue when exports fall. Instead of
saving part of the oil windfall Mr Correa
had piled up debt. Mr Moreno had little
choice but to adopt austerity. An ill-
managed attempt to withdraw fuel sub-
sidies prompted widespread protests in
October 2019 and, with the pandemic,
left his government deeply unpopular.
That has offered Mr Correa, who is in
Belgium, another chance for a comeback.
Sentenced in absentia to eight years in
jail for corruption, he picked a new proxy
for the presidential election on February
7th. Andrés Arauz, a loyal former min-
ister but dull campaigner, promises to
convoke a constituent assembly with the
seeming purpose of taking control of the
judiciary, overturning Mr Correa’s sen-
tence and allowing him in effect to run
the country.
Whether Mr Correa’s gambit works
turns in part on whom Mr Arauz, who
won 33% of the vote, faces in a run-off on
April 11th. For 60 hours after the polls
closed it looked as if that would be Yaku
Pérez of Pachakutik, an indigenous party.
After a review of votes that had been set
aside because of administrative errors by
polling officials—many in Guayaquil, themain port—Mr Lasso squeezed ahead with
19.7% to Mr Pérez’s 19.6%.
On his Twitter account Mr Correa had
been rooting for a fight with Mr Lasso once
again. This would be a straightforward
left-right contest, and two-thirds of voters
backed candidates to the left of centre. Mr
Lasso is tarred not just by being “the bank-
er candidate”, as Mr Arauz calls him, but
also by his support for Mr Moreno’s gov-
ernment. In much of Latin America today,
disdain for incumbents trumps all else.
However, Mr Correa’s appeal is waning.
Mr Arauz’s share of the vote was seven
points lower than Mr Moreno’s in the first
round in 2017. As Mr Lasso put it, two-
thirds “have voted no to the totalitarian
and populist model that is trying to re-
turn”. Mr Pérez, who claimed fraud, had a
better chance of harvesting anti-cor-
reismo. He grew up in a house without
running water. He studied law, became an
environmental activist and changed his
first name from Carlos to Yaku, meaning
“water” in the Quechuan languages of the
Andes. He abhors Mr Correa, whose gov-
ernment detained him five times for op-posing mining projects. Campaigning
partly on a bicycle, he has a reputation
for honesty. Whereas Mr Correa is an ally
of the dictators in Venezuela and Cuba,
Mr Pérez is not. His political affinities
look more green than red. Will he now
endorse Mr Lasso?
The next president faces some un-
forgiving realities. Hit hard by the pan-
demic and its recession, Ecuador’s econ-
omy is recovering only slowly after
contracting by 9% last year. A $6.5bn
loan from theimf, of which $4bn has
already been disbursed, requires the
government to cut the fiscal deficit from
7.8% of gdplast year to 2.8% this year.
That will be less hard than it looks: tax
revenues are recovering and Mr Moreno’s
debt renegotiation saved 1.5% ofgdpin
interest that would have fallen due this
year. Even so, the new government will
have to cut spending or raise taxes—and
probably both—fairly soon.
Mr Arauz promises a $1bn giveaway to
families in his first week. He wants to
pay for this by using the Central Bank’s
reserves. Since their function in a dollar-
ised economy is to back bank deposits,
that risks a bank run. Mr Lasso opposes
raising vat, but otherwise supports the
imfprogramme and fiscal restraint.
The next government will not have a
majority in the parliament. Mr Correa’s
allies will form the largest bloc and his
sister Pierina may be the legislature’s
speaker. Ecuador’s drama is that the
dollar has given it stability, but can bring
rapid growth only if governments un-
dertake sweeping reforms. When presi-
dent, Mr Correa squandered an oil-fu-
elled opportunity to do that. History
suggests that with less money, populists
become more authoritarian. To prevent
that, anti-correismo will need to over-
come anti-bankerism.Anti-incumbency versus anti-correismofickers and other troublemakers. But it has
not set up institutions needed to enforce
the law consistently. Without order, it is
left to protect social leaders one by one.
Iván Duque, Colombia’s conservative
president, has made an effort. In 2018 he
created the “timely action plan” to come up
with policies to protect social leaders. The
government holds meetings to discuss
alerts issued by the ombudsman about spe-
cific risks to social leaders. A “national pro-
tection unit” has given hundreds of leaders
cell phones, bulletproof vests and even
bodyguards and armoured vehicles.These are half-measures. When the om-
budsman identifies threats, officials rarely
propose action to head them off, says a per-
son who attended their meetings. The inte-
rior ministry, which has no enforcement
powers, is in charge of the timely action
plan. Other agencies, such as the defence
ministry, are supposed to protect social
leaders. But they do not co-ordinate with
each other outside Bogotá, says Mr Garzón.
Another problem is mistrust. Activists
are cynical about a government that is
largely absent from their regions. Left-
wing parties have used the murders as acudgel against Mr Duque’s government.
Some of his allies dismiss their outrage as
an expression of castrochavismo—socialist
ideas from Cuba and Venezuela. Activists
sometimes refuse to meet officials to dis-
cuss how to protect them.
On February 10th Human Rights Watch,
a global pressure group, urged the govern-
ment to establish police forces and law
courts in regions where social leaders are
being slaughtered. Mr Duque, whose term
ends in 2022, is running out of time to do
that. Meanwhile, tragedies like the murder
of Mr Güetio will keep occurring. 7