The Economist - USA (2021-02-13)

10 Special reportThe future of travel The EconomistFebruary 13th 2021

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bone” for storing more data, allowing a new level of personalisa-

tion in travel. He cites the example of a passenger with a trip from

London to New York that includes a plane ticket, hotel and tran-

sport on arrival. If something changes, such as a delayed flight, an

app loaded with personal preferences can automatically rebook all

these elements. It may eventually book the entire trip, with a trav-

eller just entering where and when to go and letting details of past

journeys and personal preferences guide the choice of flight, hotel

and so on.

Passage through airports may be about to get easier as well. Jeff

Lennon of Vison-Box, a Portuguese operator of automated border

controls, argues that “biometrics is the enabler...the face is the

key”. An app will store a person’s credentials, cameras can then re-

cognise the traveller at security and boarding gates will automati-

cally open. Travel may thus become a more seamless, even person-

alised experience, with business customers greeted by name and

even given their favourite drink. Nina Brooks of aciWorld reports

that some 50 airports are trying out biometrics. The ideal outcome

would be continued travel without most of today’s hassles. 7

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tisanunfortunate fact that the ease of throwing things into a

wheelie-bag and travelling far and wide helped spread covid-19

around the world. The effects on leisure travel and destinations

that rely on tourism will be felt for years to come. But just as the

way we travel may improve as a result, so the chance for countries

to rethink tourism industries could turn a bruised and battered in-

dustry into a better one.

The pursuit of pleasure using cultural pursuits as cover goes

back to the days of the grand tourists, who trawled Europe’s artistic

heritage as well as indulging in more hedonistic activities. As sou-

venirs they returned with paintings, sculptures and sometimes

syphilis. Travel was hard and expensive. The earl of Salisbury spent

the equivalent of nearly £500,000 today on his grand tour in the

18th century, according to mbna, a credit-card firm. Even 50 years

ago foreign travel was a luxury pursuit. In 1970 a return flight from

New York to London cost around $500

(equivalent to $3,500 today).

Lower fares and the rise of the internet

have made holidays cheaper and easier to

arrange. Airlines, hotel chains, car-hire

firms and other businesses have moved

online. Dedicated internet travel agents

like Expedia and Booking.com have

emerged. Online peer-to-peer review sites

offer a mostly honest assessment of hotels,

restaurants and tourist sites. Airbnb and its

competitors have created a new class of ac-

commodation. The frictional costs of travel

have fallen sharply.

Such is the stunning growth of tourism

that the 72% decline in trips in the first ten

months of 2020 on a year earlier merely

took international travel back to where it

was in 1990. Leisure travel accounts for the

biggest slice but the rest contributes too. Business travellers stay in

hotels, eat at restaurants and hire cars. Some visits to relatives or

friends may be barely distinguishable from a holiday.

Not only are there more trips, but the world is a bigger oyster. In

1950 the top 15 destinations—with America, France, Italy and Spain

the most visited—claimed 97% of tourist arrivals. By 2015 that

share had dropped to just over half. Europe, with it historic cities,

countryside and beaches, still rules, taking just over half of all in-

ternational travellers. That is twice the share of the Asia-Pacific re-

gion, the next most popular area. Europe rakes in the most re-

ceipts, around 37% of the global total, worth some $619bn in 2019.

France and Spain are the most popular countries for a visit. The top

spots may not have changed, but their arrivals have. Chinese visits

overseas have grown from just 9m trips in 1999 to 150m in 2018.

Travellers’ preference for richer countries has created large in-

dustries. Spain relied on domestic and foreign visitors for 11.8% of

gdpin 2019, France 7.4% and Mexico 8.7%. Poorer countries lean

even more on tourist dollars. America is the biggest country for

travel spending, some $1.8trn in 2019, but overseas visitors have

put tourism at the heart of many economies. In Aruba it accounts

for nearly three-quarters of gdp; in most other small Caribbean is-

lands it is also the main economic activity. Other poorer countries

are less reliant overall but have vast tourist industries. Thailand

welcomed around 10m foreign tourists in 2001. By 2019 it had

grown fourfold (with a quarter of the total coming from China),

bringing in 1.9trn baht ($60bn) and contributing some 18% of gdp.

The emptying of tourist trails and resorts resembling ghost

towns is causing massive upheaval. unctadestimated that losses

could amount to 2.8% of world output if international arrivals

dropped by 66% in 2020. The oecdnow reckons that the drop was

more like 80%. And the expectation is that international arrivals

will probably not recover to pre-covid levels until 2023.

Tourism is a resilient industry. But it faces a downturn like no

other. Firms reliant on visitors may not be best placed to survive.

According to the wtcc, around 80% of tourist businesses world-

wide, from hotels to restaurants to tour guides, are small business-

es. Large hotel chains may have the balance-sheets to weather the

storm or the management skills to reconfigure their business to

cater more to domestic travellers. Small businesses probably lack

the cash to invest in equipment for contactless payments or better

cleaning and hygiene to reassure returning tourists.

The uncertain path to recovery raises questions over what will

remain. The unwtoreckons that countries with a big share of do-

mestic tourism—America, China and India have the largest home

markets—will recover more quickly. Travel restrictions have kept

China’s high-rollers at home, giving its fanciest hotels their best

year ever. But even domestic tourism is far

from a saviour. Britain and Spain, for ex-

ample, reckon on a decrease in domestic

tourism of 45-50% in 2020.

These problems have prompted various

responses to keep businesses alive. Some

countries such as France, which launched

an $18bn bail-out in May, have aimed cash

directly at tourist businesses. Others are

trying to reassure tourists that their coun-

tries are safe by developing protocols and

guidelines for tourism workers. Luís

Araújo, president of the Portuguese Na-

tional Tourism Authority, says his organi-

sation has arranged training for 60,000

workers at restaurants, hotels and travel

agents to create a safer travel experience.

Finland and Greece are among countries

with new training programmes aimed at

Theholiday only just began

Tourism will rebound, and may even improve

Tourism

In need of tourists

Inbound tourism spending as % of GDP

Selected countries, 2018

Sources: UNCTAD; UNWTO

Jamaica

Croatia

Montenegro

Fiji

St Kitts and Nevis

Seychelles

St Lucia

Maldives

Antigua and Barbuda

Macau (China)

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