12 Special reportThe future of travel The EconomistFebruary 13th 2021
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nternational travelis sure to recover, not least because its
benefits have long been appreciated. “Travel and change of place
impart new vigour to the mind,” is a quote attributed to Seneca, a
first-century Roman philosopher of the Stoic school. That is as
true of the relaxation of a package trip to the seaside or a trek in the
Himalayas as it is of visiting a close friend abroad or of a business
leader seeking new opportunities. The goal of stoicism was to en-
courage virtue and maximise happiness. Travel often brings both
virtue and happiness. It could be a bigger part of the bargain when
the wheelie-bag era resumes.
The urge to travel is unlikely to be permanently dimmed by co-
vid-19 even if the means to do it suffers a long-lasting hit and some
destinations take years to recover. All forecasts reckon on travel
and tourism returning to prepandemic levels over the next few
years and then continuing on a path of growth. Looking back, there
will appear to have been a “blip in demand but no impact over 20
years,” says Michael Khan of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy. Under-
lying motives and the longer-term factors of growing wealth and
increasing leisure time seem certain to reassert themselves. The
rapid growth of Chinese tourism shows the importance that the
newly wealthy place on taking a well-earned break. A growing glo-
bal middle class will see the Chinese joined by Indians, Malaysians
and Indonesians. This could bring significant shifts. Asia’s bur-
geoning middle class and the preference for regional travel could
mean that South-East Asia overhauls the Mediterranean as theworld’s preferred holiday destination.
The hope is that vaccines will bring a return of something ap-
proaching normality despite the emergence of a more transmissi-
ble form of covid-19 in the final weeks of 2020, bringing another
round of travel restrictions as countries rapidly banned visitors
from affected countries. For all such setbacks, a recovery could be-
gin in earnest in the second half of this year as vaccines start to
tame the virus and those in lockdown for many months take ad-
vantage of cheap tickets to get away, events delayed by families
spread around the world are rescheduled and executives take to
the air again. Yet how will travel look different, in both the short
and longer term?
More airlines, the main means of foreign travel, will fail and
others will remain under closer state control. Some long-haul
fares will rise and short-haul carriers go bust. But this should
create new opportunities for low-cost competitors, helping keep
prices in check. Health will become as central to travel as an airline
ticket and passport. The apps and platforms that will keep people
safe by allowing sharing of health status should also help make tra-
vel easier and smoother. Safety will become more of a selling-
point alongside visitor attractions, making for better-trained staff
and richer experiences. Holiday destinations will start to look
more carefully at the drawbacks as well as the benefits of tourism.
New technology and pressure from governments and more envi-
ronmentally aware passengers will eventually result in net-zero-
emissions aircraft.
Despite recent rapid growth, foreign travel is still an experience
for the few, not the many. As the world gets richer and populations
age, the numbers with the time and the means to take a holiday
abroad will keep growing. As aviation bosses are quick to point
out, there is a vast untapped market: around 80% of the world’s
population has never set foot on an airliner. A trip abroad is still a
rarity for most. A study by Stefan Gossling at Linnaeus University
in Sweden finds that only 11% of the world’s population took a
flight in 2018 and at most 4% flew abroad. Even in rich countries
less than half the population caught a plane. A huge swathe of the
world’s population could be preparing for a holiday.
Further step changes in the price and speed of travel, opening
up more out-of-the-way places and allowing more choice, will
change the whole business yet again. This could come most obvi-
ously from supersonic travel, which despite the commercial fail-
ure of Concorde seems likely to return, lopping several hours off
long flights. Some startups are already developing small super-
sonic corporate jets. And there is potential scope for even speedier
jaunts if space tourism can be successfully brought into play. The
technology to take passengers to the edge of space could produce
hypersonic flights, with the possibility of flying people around the
world in next to no time. The price of travel may not have much
further to fall, but greater speed is certainly on the horizon. And
that will doubtless require another step change in luggage tech-
nology beyond the wheelie-bag. 7Faster,higher,longer
Travel will return, more exotically than everThe futurecovid limit of 5,000 visitors a day. That will be cut to 675 to ensure
social distancing.
Covid-19 offers the chance not only to reset tourism to reduce
the numbers who spend the least but also to spread them out. Bar-
celona has run a campaign to encourage people to venture away
from the old city. Thailand has a scheme to promote 55 less visited
parts of the country. Concentrating on attracting fewer tourists
ready to spend more is one way to promote a healthier business.
And sustainability may become a more important guide to choices
as awareness of climate change and the less welcome effects of
tourism grow. Getting the right balance between economic, envi-
ronmental and social benefits and costs has seen a new emphasis
on sustainability. Mexico thinks covid-19 will help with its “Mexi-
co Reborn Sustainable” campaign, which aims in part to create
new routes that spread tourist dollars more widely and promote
destinations that tap into fast-growing nature tourism.
A dynamic tourism economy depends on the availability of a
variety of services, from accommodation and good services to at-
tractions, activities and events. Whether a critical mass of services
will remain everywhere is less clear. Less choice and competition,
if businesses go bust, may mean higher prices. The rapid growth of
tourist economies in recent years suggests they can be rebuilt
swiftly. But for all those governments that redesign their tourism
strategies to keep down crowds and protect the environment, oth-
ers may compete by racing to the bottom, using deep discounts to
fill hotels and planes. Tourist numbers will recover and continue
to grow either way. Greater efforts to manage them carefully
should make for a better experience for everyone. 7