TheEconomistFebruary 13th 2021 451F
or theprevious two American presi-
dents, the war in Yemen seemed like an
afterthought. Barack Obama backed the
Saudi-led coalition fighting on behalf of
Yemen’s government against the Houthi
rebels. But it was a cynical decision meant
to blunt Saudi anger over the nuclear deal
he reached with Iran in 2015. Then came
Donald Trump, who resisted calls to curtail
American support for the war. Instead he
signed huge arms deals with Saudi Arabia.
Joe Biden has promised a different ap-
proach. In a wide-ranging speech at the
State Department on February 4th, Mr Bi-
den excoriated the “humanitarian and stra-
tegic catastrophe” of the war in Yemen,
now in its seventh year. There was no hy-
perbole in his diagnosis. More than 112,000
people have been killed in the fighting.
With the economy devastated, four out of
five Yemenis rely on aid to survive. Collaps-
ing health and sanitation systems caused a
years-long cholera outbreak; the UnitedNations warns of incipient famine.
To take Mr Biden at his word, America
will no longer be complicit in this. It will
continue to sell defensive arms to Saudi
Arabia, which the Houthis have targeted
scores of times with drones and missiles,
including an attack on February 10th that
targeted the airport in Abha. But Mr Biden
pledged to end “all American support for
offensive operations”, including arms
sales. He also reversed the Trump adminis-
tration’s eleventh-hour decision to label
the Houthis a terrorist group and tapped a
respected diplomat, Timothy Lenderking,
to serve as his special envoy for Yemen.
Much will depend on the details of his
policy. If America merely cuts off the flow
of “smart” bombs, the Saudis can continue
dropping dumber ones. If it goes further,
though, it could hobble the Saudi war
machine. Between 2015 and 2019 the king-
dom was the world’s largest arms importer,
according to figures collected by the Stock-holm International Peace Research Insti-
tute, a think-tank. Around three-quarters
of that came from America, with another
13% from Britain (see chart on next page).
Years of lavish spending mean the king-
dom has all the tanks and warplanes it
needs. But it still needs other things from
America, such as munitions and spare
parts. Mr Biden has already paused a $478m
deal for 7,500 guided missiles announced
in the waning days of the Trump adminis-
tration. And the Saudis still rely on Ameri-
can help for everything from identifying
targets on the battlefield to keeping their
kit in shape. If America stops maintaining
Saudi jets, half of the kingdom’s air force
could be affected, estimates Tom Beckett of
the International Institute for Strategic
Studies, a think-tank in London.
At best, though, this would ease a con-
flict that had reached an impasse anyway.
The United Arab Emirates (uae)had been
the most effective partner in the coalition.
But it largely withdrew from the war in
2019, leaving the Saudis to muddle along
against an intransigent foe. The Houthis
have been fighting the Yemeni state for de-
cades and have shown little appetite for
compromise. Other Yemeni groups are also
vying for power. Months of un-backed
peace talks have not produced a deal.
America’s about-face on Yemen may
matter more for the future of its partner-America and the Middle EastNew sheriff in town
DUBAI
Joe Biden looks to end the war in Yemen and reset relations with Saudi ArabiaMiddle East & Africa
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