The Economist - USA (2021-02-13)

46 Middle East & Africa The EconomistFebruary 13th 2021

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ship with Saudi Arabia. Forged in 1945,

when Franklin Roosevelt met King Abdul-

aziz aboard an American cruiser in Egypt’s

Great Bitter Lake, it has grown dysfunction-

al since the turn of the century. The attacks

of September 11th 2001—overseen by the

Saudi-born Osama bin Laden and carried

out by mostly Saudi hijackers—led many

Americans to associate the kingdom with

terrorism. Eighteen months later George

W. Bush invaded Iraq, over the objections

of some Saudi officials, who feared (cor-

rectly) that it would destabilise the region.

Still, the Saudis remained friendly with

Mr Bush. Not so with his successor. They

were furious in 2011 when, as revolution

brewed in Egypt, Mr Obama called on

Hosni Mubarak, its longtime dictator, to

step down. It seemed to them a hasty be-

trayal of an American partner—one that

left them worried about their own status. A

far bigger rupture came in 2015, when Mr

Obama signed the deal under which Iran

curbed its nuclear programme in exchange

for sanctions relief. For Mr Obama it was a

legacy-defining achievement. For the Sau-

dis it was a reckless boost to their arch-

nemesis, one that offered Iran the prospect

of legitimacy and economic growth.

No surprise, then, that the Saudis were

happy to see Mr Obama go. They spared no

effort to charm Mr Trump. Unusually for an

American president, he made his first for-

eign trip to Saudi Arabia, where his hosts

feted him with a traditional sword dance

and a bizarre glowing orb. The president’s

decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal

was well received in the kingdom. After the

murder in 2018 of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi

journalist dismembered by Saudi agents

inside the kingdom’s consulate in Istan-

bul, Mr Trump helped shield the govern-

ment from consequences.

Yet Mr Trump was hardly a reliable

partner either. The Saudis (and other Gulf

states) were shaken in 2019 when he did not

retaliate for an Iranian attack on their oil

facilities. And his embrace turned Saudi

Arabia into a partisan issue in Washington.

ManyDemocrats,andsomeRepublicans,

wanttoseethekingdompunishedforthe

carnageinYemenandMrKhashoggi’smur-

der.MrBidenhimselfsaidina presidential

debatethathewouldtreatit likea “pariah”.

Thatisunlikely.Americansmaybeex-

asperatedwithSaudiArabia,butit remains

a bigoilproducer anda usefulintelligence

partner.MrBidencannotsimplycutties.

Nor,however,canheavoidconfrontation.

Heplanstore-enterthenucleardealwith

Iran.Andhewillprobablykeepuphiscriti-

cismofthekingdom’shuman-rightsre-

cord,asit seemstohaveproduceda result:

thereleaseonFebruary10thofLoujainal-

Hathloul,a women’srightsactivist.MrBi-

den’schallengewillbetofinda paththat

neitherindulgesthekingdom’sworstim-

pulsesnorreinforcesitsworstfears. 7

The king’s arms suppliers

Arms exporters to Saudi Arabia

Trendindicatorvalue*, bn

Source: SIPRI

*Measuresvalueofarmstransfers,adjusted

forcapability,ratherthanfinancialvalue

United

States

Britain

France

Canada

Italy

China

Germany

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191817162015

Other

T

he drivefrom Benghazi to Tripoli, Lib-

ya’s capital, should take ten hours. But

the coastal road connecting the two cities

has been impassable for most of the past

decade because of an on-and-off civil war.

Since Libyans toppled Muammar Qaddafi,

their old dictator, in 2011, various groups

have fought for control of the country—

and for parts of the road. Today, near the

road’s mid-point outside Sirte, militias,

boulders and landmines block the way.

Opening that road is one of many tasks

facing the new Libyan administration un-

veiled in Geneva on February 5th. Holding

presidential and parliamentary elections

in December is its primary job. The body,

led by a three-person presidential council

and a prime minister, was chosen by 74 Lib-

yans in a forum representing the country’s

regions at talks sponsored by the United

Nations. It was the un’s fourth attempt to

establish a unified government in Libya

since the revolution. But the new adminis-

tration faces some old problems.

The biggest of these is meddling by for-

eign powers. Turkey and Qatar back the

Government of National Accord (gna) and

its allied militias, which control the west

(see map). The gnawas the un’s third at-

tempt at a unified government. But it has

been challenged by the self-styled Libyan

National Army (lna) led by Khalifa Haftar,

a renegade general who dominates the

east. He is backed by Egypt, France, Russia

and the United Arab Emirates. Even so, the

general’s siege of Tripoli was broken last

year by forces loyal to the gna, which then

pushed the lnaback to Sirte.

Some of these foreign powers probably

do not want the new administration to suc-

ceed. But there has been cause for hope in

the past six months. A ceasefire negotiated

by the unin October has largely held and

prisoners have been exchanged. In Sep-

tember General Haftar lifted a blockade on

oil exports, the country’s main source of in-

come. A separate government in the east,

allied to the general, agreed with the gna

on a single exchange rate for the Libyan di-

nar and the resumption of flights between

east and west. Countries are reopening

their embassies in Tripoli.

When the uncreated the gnain 2015, it

met behind closed doors and imposed

Fayez al-Serraj, a largely unknown politi-

cian, as prime minister. It was more inclu-

sive and transparent when setting up the

new administration. The proceedings of

the 74-member forum were broadcast live

on the un’s website, as were interviews

with candidates for the presidential coun-

cil and prime minister, who ran on four-

person lists (and who agreed not to stand

for office in December). “When we began

the process in November, the delegates

were cursing each other,” says a unofficial.

“By February they stayed up after midnight

laughing and chatting together.”

The delegates took observers by sur-

prise, rejecting a list of powerful politi-

cians from east and west in favour of peo-

ple who had never held high office. The

presidential council will be led by Muham-

mad al-Menfi, a former diplomat. The new

prime minister is one of the country’s rich-

est men, Abdul Hamid Dabaiba. During the

Qaddafi era he ran the state-owned Libyan

Investment and Development Company,

responsible for some of the country’s big-

gest public-works projects. His brother-in-

law, Ali Dabaiba, has been investigated for

allegedly embezzling millions of dollars

from public funds, perhaps with the help of

his family. Ali sat on the forum and is ac-

cused of trying to buy votes for Abdul Ha-

mid. He denies all of these claims.

Can a new administration reunite

war-torn Libya?

Libya

Fourth time lucky

EGYPT

CHAD

LIBYA

TUNISIA

ALGERIA

Tripoli

Mediterraneansea

Benghazi

Misrata

Sirte

Tobruk

Crete

(Greece)

Tribesmen

NIGER

al-Jafra

“Maginot

line”

Oil and gas

pipelines/fields

Sparsely populated

or uninhabited

250 km

Areas of control, February 2021

By population density

Source: Risk Intelligence

UN-backed government

Libyan National Army (Haftar)