The Economist - USA (2021-02-13)

48 Middle East & Africa The EconomistFebruary 13th 2021

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vanfreemanrunsa 20-hectarerose

farmatthefootofMountKenyaright

bytheequator,wherethesoilisfertile

andthesunshinesalltheyearround.His

business,UhuruFlowers,exportsto

some 49 countries,includingChina,

NigeriaandpartsofeasternEurope.

Someofhisbudsreachtheshopwindow

withinfourdaysofbeingcut.

Thatfinelytunedbusinesscametoa

haltwhenthepandemicstruck.Celebra-

tionswerecancelled,floristsshutand

aeroplanesweregrounded.Uhuru

halvedworkers’hoursanddestroyed

1.2munsoldstems,abouta month’s

harvest.Supplychainshaveslowlybeen

rebuiltsincethen,andthe 350 staffare

backfull-time.NowMrFreeman,like

manyfarmers,isspeedingupproduc-

tion,hopingtorecouplastyear’slosses

withsalesonFebruary14th.“Valentine’s

Dayformostfarmsisa hugedeal,”he

says.“Everyoneisfeelingpositiveand

readytotakeadvantageofit.”

Aftertheinitialdisruption,countries

havereopenedtheirborders.Florists

havegoneonlineandKenya’sflowerin-

dustryhascomeuproses.Thesector

employedmorepeoplelastmonththan

beforecovid-19begantospread,according

toa surveyofproducersintheRiftValley

byKenya’scentralbank.Productionand

exportsareat90%and95%oftheirlevels

inFebruarylastyear,respectively.

Farmerssaydemandhasrecovered

surprisinglywell.Theglobaleconomy

mayhavewiltedandconsumersmaybe

penny-pinching,saysAnnaBarkeratthe

FairtradeFoundation,but“abunchof

flowersonthetabledoeswonderswhen

you’reinlockdown.”

ThatisgoodnewsforKenya’seconomy.

Theflowerindustryusuallycontributes

around1%ofgdpandisa sourceofforeign

exchange.It employsmorethan500,000

people,including100,000directlyin

farms.Debateaboutflowerfarmsonce

focusedonpoorconditionsforworkers,

whoareontheirfeetalldayandexposedto

allsortsofchemicals.Thefocusnowison

keepingtheseworkers,includinglotsof

unskilledwomen,injobs.

A bigproblemthathasn’tgoneawayis

transport.Fewerpassengerflightsthan

usualplythecrucialroutefromAfricainto

Europe.Andfreightcapacityhasfallenas

planeshavebeenredirectedtomoving

medicalequipmentaround.RichardFoxat

FlamingoHorticulture,a bigflowerpro-

ducerwithfarmsinTimau,reckonsthe

costofairfreighthasjumpedfrom$1.90to

almost$3perkilointhepastyear.

Suchdisruptionhashurtthesmaller

farmsa lotmore.Flamingo,whichpro-

cessesa mammoth780mstemseveryyear,

hasa long-termagreementwitha logistics

provider.Itssupplychainhasbarelybeen

disrupted.Butsmallerfarmsarebusy

negotiatingwithfreighters.Competition

forslotsonplanesisparticularlyfierce

aheadofthepeakseason,whichbegins

withValentine’sDayandextendstoMoth-

er’sDayweekslater.“Thebigguysalways

win,”sighsMrFreeman.

Flowerpower

Kenya’srose-tintedspectacle

TIMAU

Covid-19wiltedKenya’sfloralfarms.Nowtheyarebloomingagain

Little luxuries for lockdown lovers

A new government will now be appointed

that will be closer to Mr Tshisekedi.

Mr Tshisekedi’s ascent to the presiden-

cy, in rigged elections at the end of 2018,

was unexpected. For much of his adult life

he had lived in Belgium. He was given a

place on the ballot largely because of the

reputation of his late father, Étienne, a fire-

brand opposition leader who died in 2017.

Electoral tallies compiled by the Catholic

church suggested that Mr Tshisekedi came

second, with under 20% of the vote, well

behind Martin Fayulu, a charismatic anti-

corruption campaigner. Yet Mr Tshisekedi,

to the astonishment of many Congolese,

was declared the winner, seemingly as part

of a last-minute deal with the former presi-

dent. The quid pro quo, allegedly, was that

Mr Kabila kept control of much of the state.

Yet power has steadily flowed to Mr

Tshisekedi as he has appointed allies to key

posts. He appears to have routed Mr Kabila

more quickly and comprehensively than

almost anyone predicted. “We thought it

would be closer to 50/50,” says Manya

Riche, a Congolese political analyst. “This

totally surpassed that.”

Exactly how Mr Tshisekedi achieved

this is unclear. Supporters of Mr Kabila (or

at least those who did not swap sides) mut-

ter that bribery must have been involved.

There are whispers that some mps took

payouts of $7,000-15,000 to join the new

coalition. One leading mpwho changed

sides admits that although “money circu-

lated”, people were offered much more to

stay. Other mps may simply have been un-

nerved enough to change their allegiance

by Mr Tshisekedi’s threat to call new elec-

tions. He has also targeted allies of Mr Ka-

bila with an anti-corruption drive. Faced

with the chance of lucrative positions un-

der Mr Tshisekedi on the one hand, and

prosecution on the other, many opted to

migrate to the president’s greener pastures.

Mr Tshisekedi made big promises on

coming to office, including providing free

primary schooling, building infrastructure

and reforming the electoral system. Al-

most none of that has happened. Most

Congolese remain extremely poor. In a

park near the parliament, a group of men

playing backgammon with bottle tops say

that jobs remain scarce. “The poor in Congo

still suffer, while the rich continue to eat,”

complains Eric Kayado, a petrol vendor.

(“Eat”, in Congo, implies “embezzle”.)

Mr Tshisekedi has long argued that Mr

Kabila’s control of parliament was a pro-

blem. “The system of Mr Kabila was to

block [progress],” says Jacquemain Sha-

bani, an official in Mr Tshisekedi’s party,

the udps. Outside the party’s offices, a

crowd of his supporters argue that their

president has “chased away” Mr Kabila and

will now bring them the changes they hope

for. “Now he can work for the people,” says

Darcin Mukendi.

Yet a new majority may not make re-

form easier. The new government will not

necessarily be stable, notes Ms Riche. The

president’s new allies will be competing for

ministerial positions. Not every aisle-

crosser will stay loyal. The economy re-

mains weak and, for the moment, Mr Ka-

bila retains his grip on a large part of it.

Some fear that Mr Tshisekedi may end

up emulating Mr Kabila, whose final years

in office were characterised by grotesque

corruption and the suppression of dissent.

On coming to office Mr Tshisekedi released

political prisoners and promised freedom

of the press. Now he appears to be back-

tracking. On January 28th Human Rights

Watch, a watchdog, accused Mr Tshise-

kedi’s government of having arbitrarily de-

tained and prosecuted journalists and ac-

tivists. It is too early to conclude that the

new boss is the same as the old boss. But or-

dinary Congolese have cause to worry. 7