The Economist - USA (2021-02-13)

50 Europe The Economist February 13th 2021

In southern Europe closures have been

less widespread. Spanish schools have

stayed open since the autumn, though

most high schools use some distance-

learning. Some 35,000-40,000 new teach-

ers and assistants have been hired to re-

duce class sizes. In Italy primary schooling

has not been interrupted. High schools,

shut in November, have reopened for most

classes. Both countries have struggled with

remote classrooms, thanks to dodgy inter-

net connections and a lack of computers

among poorer pupils.

Similar tech problems plague the conti-

nent’s poorer east. Nevertheless, the clo-

sures there have been stricter. In Poland

schools have been shut since late October;

schools for those aged up to eight reopened

on January 18th. A survey of Polish teachers

last summer found that most knew of pu-

pils who had not turned up since instruc-

tion went online. Romania’s schools were

shut almost continuously from March un-

til they reopened on February 8th, yet more

than a quarter of the country’s children are

not equipped for online education, accord-

ing to Save the Children, a charity. By Janu-

ary the government had distributed

around 250,000 tablets, but said 287,000

more students still needed one.

Many experts worry about the emotion-

al and developmental damage of lock-

downs. But the data are ambiguous. A sur-

vey of Dutch social workers last year found

that emotional neglect of the children they

were responsible for was much more com-

mon than in the same period in 2017. But

even though some children report less af-

fection from their families, others say they

are getting more, including a rise in hugs.

Others worry about working parents forced

to stay at home to care for children. About

150,000 Polish women have dropped out of

the labour force since last March, says Piotr

Lewandowski, an economist.

One issue has been what to do about Eu-

rope’s all-important national examin-

ations. Germany is pressing ahead with the

Abiturto ensure that this year’s graduates

get equal respect. Dutch high schools have

stayed open for students in their final year

before the eindexamen. In France, the

dreaded four-hour baccalauréat exams

have been cancelled, apart from bits the

country considers essential: French litera-

ture, the final oral exam and, of course, the

written exam in philosophy.

At least the gravity of the threat to edu-

cation has sunk in. Austria, Denmark and

the Netherlands reopened their primary

schools on February 8th; Romania reo-

pened primary and most high schools as

well. The question is what governments

will do if infection rates rise in the spring:

close schools again, or find other painful

measures (such as curfews or bans on

house visits) to compensate for keeping

children in class. 

France

The president’s dilemma

I

n february2016, just 14 months before

the most recent French presidential elec-

tion, not a single opinion poll of potential

candidatesbotheredtotestthenameEm-

manuelMacron.Weakpartyallegiances,

anti-establishment distrust,abold cam-

paign—anda generousdoseofluck—car-

riedtheelectoralnovicefromnowhereto

thepresidencyinrecordtime.AsFrance

nowturnsitsmindtothepresidentialcon-

test in 2022, all polls and predictions

thereforedeservecaution.Yetthecontours

of the next campaign are beginning to

emerge,andtheypresenta peculiarchal-

lengetoMrMacronashethinksaheadto

hisre-electionbid.

Twonewpollssuggestthat 2022 will

bringa repeatoftherun-offbetweenthe

centristMrMacronandthenationalistMa-

rineLePen.Buteachalsopointstoa far

tighterracethanin2017,whenMrMacron

beatMsLePensquarelyby66%to34%.

One poll reduces the sitting president’s

marginto 12 points.Theothergiveshiman

evennarrowervictoryof52%to48%.The

French, proneto malaise even in good

times,givelittlecredittotheirpresident

andarefeelinganxious:abouta possible

thirdlockdown,thespreadoflevariantan-

glais, thereliability(andnowtheavailabil-

ity) of vaccines, the well-being of the

young,andthelivelihoodsofallthosefur-

loughedchefsandwaiterswhosustainthe

Frenchartdevivre.

Apprehension,aswellasdiseasecon-

trol,hasbreda politicsofreassuranceand

caution.WhereasonceMrMacronstood in

anarmytentanddeclaredwaronthevirus,

covid-19’slongeffectonpoliticshasbeen

toemphasiseprotection.Hepromisedto

do “whatever itcosts” to save jobs and

lives.Hisgovernmentmaintainsa gener-

ousfurloughsystemformillionsofem-

ployees,aswellasloansandgrantstokeep

businessesafloat.Itisshieldingitssuper-

marketsfromforeignpredators,hasraised

healthworkers’ salaries andhasall but

shelveditscontroversialpensionreform.

A nightlynationalcurfewhasbeeninplace

sincemid-December.EvenFrance’sglacial

vaccineroll-outisjustifiedasa measure to

buildtrustina vaccine-scepticalcountry;

Britain’sapproach,saida minister,carries

“enormousrisks”.

Suchprudencemaybejustifiedbythe

pandemic,andinmanywaysmatchesthe

new global orthodoxy. Yet the broader

messagealsoworksagainstMrMacron’s

reflexes,andwhathestoodforduringhis

bidforthepresidencyin2017.Thecandi-

date’scampaignthenwasbasedonanat-

temptbothtofreeupinitiativeandrisk-

taking,andtobuildamodernsystemof

rulesandprotectionstoencouragethis to

happen.Mr Macron’sdefiant,disruptive

side—reforms to the labour market,

schools,training,therailwaysandtaxes—

markedhisinitialyearsinoffice.Covid-19

iscrushingthisflat.

“In alloursocieties thepandemicis

leadingustoprotectmore;that’snormal,”

MrMacrontoldTheEconomistata recent

PARIS

The pandemic favours the politics of caution over risk

Not bad, considering

France, confidence in presidents, % responding

Source:Kantar

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

4542363024181261

Monthssincestartofterm

Nicolas Sarkozy

François Hollande

Emmanuel

Macron

Quoi faire?