The Economist February 13th 2021
Graphic detail Covid-19 vaccines85
Jabs and jab-nots
C
ovid-19 hasspread at a formidable clip
of late, but the vaccines designed to
stop it are spreading even faster. In the two
months since mass vaccination began, at
least 148m doses have been administered—
more than the number of people who have
ever tested positive for the disease. A fur-
ther 39m are now getting a jab every week.
The new vaccines have been designed
and tested with unprecedented speed. Ac-
cording to a tally kept by Airfinity, an ana-
lytics company, 378 covid-19 vaccines are
in various stages of development. Of those,
three (made by Pfizer, Moderna and Astra-
Zeneca) have met the stringent rules for
regulatory approval in at least one Western
country; two more (made by Novavax andJohnson&Johnson)shouldgetthegreen
light soon. Two vaccines from China and a
promising Russian one have also been au-
thorised in some countries.
The makers of these eight vaccines have
signed contracts to deliver 7.9bn doses this
year, and say they have capacity to fulfil or-
ders for 4.3bn more. Of these, only a small
fraction have already been produced, and
manufacturing delays are likely. Moreover,
even after jabs leave the factory, getting
them into people’s arms can take months.
Nonetheless, at least in theory, vaccine
makers should be able to produce 2.1
shots—more than a full regimen—for each
of the world’s 5.8bn adults by the end of- (Children are not yet eligible, pend-
ing research on safety and efficacy.)
Yet even if all goes according to plan,
much of the world will suffer a longer wait,
because jabs will be distributed unequally.
The 54 richest countries account for 18% of
adults on Earth, but 40% of vaccine or-
ders—enough to give each of their adults
2.5 two-dose regimens. Even though the eu
has contracted for more vaccines than it
canuse,somememberstates,likeGerma-
ny, have made their own deals. Canada has
ordered a whopping 11 doses per adult.
Elsewhere, expected supply is tighter, at
1.5 doses ordered per adult. Russia and Chi-
na can probably make do with their domes-
tic jabs. And the Serum Institute, the
world’s biggest vaccine maker, plans to
save half of its output for local use in India.
Many other countries are relying on co-
vax, a global coalition to distribute co-
vid-19 vaccines. It is expected to provide at
least 1.8bn doses to 92 poor and middle-in-
come countries this year, in proportion to
their populations (though subsequent al-
locations will depend on where the pan-
demic is most severe). Weighting by total
population favours countries with lots of
children, who count when determining
vaccine quantities but are unlikely to get
the shots. For example, Niger, where 50%
of people are aged under 15, will receive 2.1
doses for every adult from covax. In con-
trast, North Korea, whose adults make up
80% of the population, will get just 0.7 dos-
es for each one. There will be enough vaccines for
everyone—if rich countries share→Richcountrieshaveorderedmorevaccinesthantheyneed.PooreroneswithrelativelyoldpopulationsfacedireshortagesCovid-19vaccineorders
AtFebruary10th2021,countries
sizedbypopulationin 2018Humandevelopmentv dosesorderedperadult*,2020,size=adultpopulation Totaldosesordered,selectedpurchasers,bn*Aged 15 andover†AssumingChinesevaccinemakers distribute their spare capacity locally ‡AssumingtwoSputnikV dosesareavailablefor
every adult §Counting half of Serum Institute output saved for local use Sources: Airfinity; Gavi; Our World in Data; UN; World Bank; The Economist0 0.2 0.5 1 1.5 2 3 4 5 6Doses ordered per adult*Deficit SurplusIndia§JapanS. KoreaN. KoreaIndonesiaPhilippinesRussia‡IraqBelarusBritainSri LankaTaiwanGer.
Fra.Brazil
PeruChile Argentina MadagascarTanzaniaSouth AfricaMexico BangladeshNigeriaCongoNigerEgypt
IsraelMoroccoTu r ke yUgandaKazakhstanUzbekistanIran
PakistanAustralia NZCanadaUnited States
China†Pa ra g u ayCambodiaOman
Guatemala Panama
MyanmarCubaDominican
RepublicNo dataAfricanUnionCOVAXJapan0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0UnitedStatesIndia§EU
China†BrazilCanadaBritainAstraZeneca-OxfordUniversity
Pfizer-BioNTech
Novavax
Johnson& Johnson
Moderna
Other
Vaccine approved in jurisdiction0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0↓COVAXallocatesvaccinesby
totalpopulation.Poorercountries
tendtohavelotsofchildren,raising
theirratioofdosesperadultHuman Development Index, from 0 to 1Surplus ↑
Deficit ↓
024681012USCanadaIndia ChinaBritain
AustraliaBrazilUganda
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