The Week - UK (2021-02-13)

Briefing NEWS 13

13 February 2021 THE WEEK

Howdidtherevolutionsbegin?
On 17 December2010,Mohamed
Bouazizi,ayoungstreetvendor,set
himselfalightoutsidethegovernor’s
officeinSidiBouzid,acityinrural
Tunisia.Hewasprotestingthatofficials
haddemandedbribesandseizedhiscart
andproduce–hissolemeansofearning
tosupporthissixsiblingsandmother.
Inthe 18 daysbetweenBouazizi’sprotest
andhisdeathon 4 January2011,the
mostsignificantunrestindecades
eruptedinTunisia–apolicestateruled
byZineal-AbidineBenAlisince 1987.
Crowdsmarchedacrossthenation,
callingfor“Employment,freedom,
dignity”,andchantingwhatwould
becomethesloganoftheArabSpring:
“Thepeopledemandthefallofthe
regime!”Dozensofprotesterswerekilled
bypolicebeforeBenAlifledtoSaudiArabiaon1 4 January.

How fast did the protests spread?
Very fast. Bouazizi’sactof despairandTunisia’s“Jasmine
Revolution” resonated across North Africaand theMiddleEast.
Protestswerequicklyorganised inEgypt, bringingoutmassive
crowds acrossthecountryon 25January.LikeBenAli,President
HosniMubaraktriedtoregaincontrolbyofferingconcessions
while also crackingdownviolently onprotests.Mubaraklostthe
support ofthearmy,andon11Februaryhe steppeddown–a
decisioncelebrated wildlybyprotestersinCairo’s Tahrir Square.
Intheearly partof the year,therewerealso majoruprisingsin
Syria,Bahrain,Libyaand Yemen, andsustainedprotestsin
Morocco,Iraq,Algeria,Lebanon, Kuwait andSudan.In August,
followinganintervention byNatoforces, Libya’sMuammar
Gaddafi wasforcedfrompower,andlaterkilled.InYemen,
President AliAbdullahSalehagreedtocedepower.Together,
the four deposed dictatorshadruled foratotal of127 years.

Why did it happen so quickly?
Similarconditionsprevailedinmanyof thesenations:long-
entrenched post-colonialeliteshad stifled freedomsandbuilt
corruptnetworks; economicgrowthhad stalled fordecades,
particularlyinruralareas;yet
populations were growingfast,and
youthunemployment intheregion
wasamongthe highestintheworld.
However, heavy state censorship was
progressively beingunderminedby
new socialmedia :studentsorganised
protestsusing FacebookandTwitter.
(Bouazizi’s self-immolation–unlike
severalother earliercases in Tunisia
–was filmed andspreadon social
media.) However, uprisingsoccurred
both in countries that ha dhighsocial
media use(such as Tunisia and Egypt)
andinthose thathad practicallynone
(Libya). AlJazeera, the Qatari satellite
news channelwhichbroke the
regional tabooon criticising Arab
regimes, also playedasignificant role.

When did the backlash begin?
Early on: in February 2011, protests
by the poorer Shia majority in Bahrain
were violently suppressed by the Sunni
ruling familyand their alliesin the

PersianGulf.InSyria,YemenandLibya,

theoutpouringofpopulardiscontentled

tobloodyandprotractedstruggles

betweenprotestmovementsandruling

regimes:civilwarserupted,greatly

exacerbatedbyforeignintervention.

Egypt’sexperimentwithdemocracy

lasteduntil2013,whenGeneralAbdul

Fattahal-Sisiseizedpowerfromthe

democraticallyelectedMuslim

BrotherhoodgovernmentofMohamed

Morsi.ItissometimessaidthattheArab

SpringwasfollowedbytheArabWinter.

Whatwerethelong-termeffects?

Theyappeartobelargelynegative.

OnlyTunisiaemergedwithagenuine

democracy.Sisi’sEgyptisconsiderably

morerepressivethanMubarak’s:

politiciansandjournalistsareimprisoned

inmuchlargernumbers;statecensorshipnowextendstothe

internet.According tothe Council onForeign Relations, none

of the ArabSpring nationsexceptTunisia hasmoredemocratic

freedomsor lesscorruptionthanpre-2011.Inno countryhasthe

standardofliving significantlyimprovedsincetherevolutions,

andithas greatlydeclinedin conflict-ravaged areas.In Syria,

Yemen andLibya,hundredsof thousands havebeenkilledand

millionsdisplaced.TheSyrianwaralsocausedthemigration crisis

of 2 015 ,whichhadaprofound effecton Europeanpolitics.

Whywas Tunisiathe exception?

UnlikeEgypt’s,Tunisia’smilitaryissmalland apolitical,and its

largest Islamistmovement(seebox),Ennahda, ismoderateand

committedto democratic pluralism:Ennahdaagreedto give up

powerwhenthenewconstitutionwaspassed in 2014 .Tunisia is

asmallnationof11 million people, andnearlyal lTunisiansare

Sunni Muslims,meaning that there are fewsectarianor tribal

faultlinesof the kind thathave provedso destructivein Syria and

Yemen. Tunisiaalso hasacomparativelyliberal, secularised

cultureandstrong trade unions.Evenso,thecountry’stransition

to democracy hasbeen hard-won, andinterruptedby political

assassinationsandIslamistterroristatrocities.

So therevolution failed?

“TheArabSpring isfarfromover,”

saysDrGeorgesFahmiofChatham

House. Theeventsof the past decade

have increasedsocial divisions and

fearsthatArabstates couldcollapse

altogether.This hasbolstere dthe

dictators’ claimthatit’seither “usor

chaos”. On the otherhand,the ten-

sionsthat producedthe ArabSpring

are still very muchpresent.In2 011,

theWorld Bankestimated there were

nine millionpeople livingbelowthe

poverty line of $1.90perday in the

Middle East andNorth Africa.By

2018, thatnumberhad reached 28

million. In 2019-20,anewwave of

protestsremoved twolong-serving

despots, presidents Bouteflikaof

Algeria and Bashir ofSudan. “I do

thinkwe’vepreemptively concluded

that most oftheuprising scameto

nothing,” says Dr H.A. Hellyer of the

RUSI. “It will be decadesbefore we

full yunderstandtheir consequences.”

TheArab Spring, ten years on

Adecadeagothisweek,theEgyptianleaderHosniMubarakwasdeposedasmassprotestsspreadacrosstheArabworld

ProtestersinTahrirSquare,Egypt,inFebruary 2011

Islamism andthe uprisings of 2011

Although they did not launch the protests of 2011 –

many of which were led by liberal students–Islamist

movements were the immediate political beneficiaries

of the Arab Spring. Islamists had long been brutally

suppressed by authoritarian Arab regimes, but being

deeply entrenched in all of these societies, they proved

much more able to provideapolitical alternative than

loose coalitions of protesters. In each nation, the

Islamist response wasacrucia lfactor. At one extreme,

Tunisia’s Ennahda, an Islamist party formed after the

revolution, signed up toastate ment of shared

principles with other groups. At the other, Isis offered

an ultra-violent alternative to democracy in Syria.

In Egypt, secular and Islamist forces initially stood

together, protesting on “days of rage” on Fridays.

However, the coalition fell apart after the Muslim

Brotherhood wonamajority during the late 2011 and

early 2012 elections. Fears that the Brotherhood was

only exploiting democracy to disband it (“One Person,

One Vote, One Time,” as the phrase goes) grew when

President Morsi suspended parts of the constitution.

Vast protests in June and July 2013 culminated in an

army coup d’état led by General Sisi, the minister of

defence. The Muslim Brotherhood was later banned.