The Economist February 20th 2021 Asia 31such as in domestic service. Many women
are teachers, and India’s 450,000 private
schools have been hard-hit by mandatory
closures that are only now lifting, state by
state. Hemalatha, a 46-year-old high-
school computer teacher in Salem, a city of
1m in the state of Tamil Nadu, considers
herself lucky: although she suffered a 50%
cut to her salary in June and is still paid less
than before, most teachers in the junior
school got fired. Far more women than
men have also pulled out of jobs in order to
look after children who have been stuck at
home. And meanwhile men have found it
easier to shift into fields boosted by the
pandemic, such as delivery services. In
Chennai, Raj Suresh abandoned a local
travel magazine he had run for 20 years
when advertising crashed, but found a new
career peddling “immunity-boosting”
herbal remedies.
In many ways, however, the pandemic
has simply exacerbated labour-market
trends that were already in motion. The
proportion of women in the workforce has
been falling for some time, in part owing to
structural changes such as mechanisation
on farms and the decline of traditional
craft industries. Relatively small improve-
ments in living standards also prompt
women in many families to stop working,
both as an emblem of their status and out
of fears for their safety outside the home.
According to the International Labour Or-
ganisation, the female participation rate
fell from almost 26% in 2010 to less than
21% in 2019. cmie uses a more exacting def-
inition of participation, which requires
people to have been working or actively
and recently looking for work. By its mea-
sure participation sank from 16% in 2016 to
11% by the end of 2019 because of the slow-
ing economy and a series of harmful poli-
cies, such as “demonetisation” (the with-
drawal of most paper currency, which led
to a nationwide cash crunch).
Largely because of the dismal level of
female participation, India’s overall work-
force has failed to grow. It was 420m in
2016, and is now just 400m by cmie’s
count. It would be around 600m if India
had a similar labour participation rate to,
say, China or Indonesia (see chart). Just as
worrying as the failure to generate jobs,
says Mahesh Vyas, cmie’s boss, is the fail-
ure to generate good ones. Despite long ef-
forts to “formalise” the economy, a govern-
ment survey in 2018 found that 77% of
workers were either self-employed or ca-
sual labourers. That proportion has stayed
stubbornly fixed, as companies have
grown used to skirting onerous labour
laws by subcontracting, hiring temporary
workers or doling out tasks to freelancers.
This practice is what led to clashes at an
iPhone assembly plant near Bangalore inDecember, where thousands of subcon-
tracted workers had been infuriated by
poor pay and long hours compared with
the plant’s far smaller number of pukka
salaried employees.
Mr Vyas does not think this trend will
change soon. During the pandemic, he
notes, a lowering of corporate taxes and of
interest rates was intended to boost invest-
ment and hiring. But many companies
simply boosted dividends while contin-
uing to trim payrolls. Even as unemploy-
ment has risen, corporate profits and stock
prices have hit record levels. “Quite simply,
the terms of trade have turned against la-
bour,” says Mr Vyas. Women’s squib
Female labour-force participation rate*, %
Modelled ILO estimateSource: International Labour Organisation *Aged 15-64806040200
2000 05 10 15 20South AfricaIndiaChina
BrazilIndonesiaG
overnments comeand go in New
Caledonia, a French territory of
270,000 in the south Pacific. There have
been 16 since 1998, when the French
government and local politicians signed
the Nouméa Accord, a power-sharing
deal that aimed to end violent agitation
for independence. The new government
named this week, however, stands out. It
is the first dominated by pro-independ-
ence parties, with six of 11 ministers.
That, in turn, means New Caledonia
should soon have its first indigenous and
first pro-independence president.
The indigenous Kanaks, although the
largest ethnic group, are less than half
the population. (Europeans and migrants
from other parts of the Pacific are most of
the rest.) In two successive referendums
on independence, in 2018 and 2020, the
islanders chose to remain part of France,
although the outcome of the most recent
ballot, in October, was a narrow 53%-
47%. The territorial congress reflects the
same division, with a loyalist coalition
holding a slim majority. The congress
elects the 11 members of the government,
although a proportional system means
that both pro- and anti-independence
forces are represented. Hitherto, the
loyalists’ majority in the congress had
allowed them to dominate the govern-
ment, and thus control the presidency.
After a squabble about the sale of a big
nickel mine caused the previous govern-
ment to fall, a small party, L’Éveil Océa-
nien (Oceanian Awakening), supported
by migrants from France’s other Pacific
territories (French Polynesia and Wallis
and Futuna), withdrew its support for the
loyalist coalition. Instead, it backed the
ministerial slate put up by a pro-inde-
pendence coalition, the Front de Libéra-tion Nationale Kanak et Socialiste
(flnks). Further partisan manoeuvring
prevented L’Éveil from winning a port-
folio itself, but its support gave inde-
pendence parties a majority.
Further horse-trading is to come.
Each of the two main pro-independence
coalitions, flnksand uni, has a candi-
date for president. But with six of 11
votes, independence forces should be
able to elevate one of their own. That
could matter a lot. The third and final
referendum on independence under the
Nouméa Accord will probably be held
next year. The government can do much
to shape the campaign. And the feeling
that independence is nigh may prompt
some Europeans to move away, altering
the shape of the electorate. The parlia-
mentary wrangling is arcane, but the
consequences for New Caledonia are
likely to be profound. New CaledoniaLes Kanaks en marche
WELLINGTON
Parties that favour independence win a majorityIn the middle of a chain reaction